Waiting For Deadline Day

It has been a hard year as a hockey fan. Frankly, the team's play hasn't been inspiring for more than short stretches (as in minutes, not games). So I'm only watching a period here and there... and not particularly caring if I see any more. Or less, frankly. It is so discouraging to flip on the TV and see stats like "the Senators have only 2 shots on net after 12 minutes of play." I'm obviously not missing much.

I've tried to write this article about a dozen times over the last month. Not once have I come up with anything intelligible, or indeed new, about the current state of the team.

What gets me going for this attempt is this article from Black Aces. It dissects a rumor that Murray wanted to fire Clouston about a month ago, but Melnyk squashed it by telling Murray that if Clouston went, Murray would be gone with him.

Now I don't think I've ever been in favor of firing a coach. Coach firing is a quick-fix for attempting to re-engage an unmotivated group of players, possibly trying to frighten them into playing well. The Ottawa Senators have given up on coaches before (see also Martin Gerber's entire stay here).

The fact of the matter is that the problems with this team begin and end with the roster, and the responsibility for the roster's state lies with the GM. I read or heard a saying recently that special teams' effectiveness is directly proportional to the effectiveness of the coach; the teams' effectiveness at five-on-five hockey is directly proportional to the GM's effectiveness. And while by that yardstick Clouston isn't covered in glory, his record book looks better than the turd sitting on Murray's.

It has been three long years with Brian Murray at the helm, and I think that the organization's state can finally be laid on his desk rather than blaming the mess that he inherited from Muckler. While Murray has done an arguably good job of filling the farm development system which should yield some quality (but possibly not stellar) players in the future, the current team is overloaded with overpaid, under-performing, over-the-hill veterans of past campaigns. Popular players, to be sure, but hockey is a "what have you done for me lately" business and this roster isn't getting it done.

But at the same time I'm not ready to get behind canning Murray.

The facts of life in todays salary-cap world is that you can't get trades done. How many trades, league wide, have there been since opening day? Five? So how come Murray is condemned for being unable to do what so many other GMs are also failing to do?

So given that we can't trade our way out of our problems, then what?

Well yes, Murray should stop giving out long-term contracts with no-trade or no-movement clauses like they are candy. But aside from that.

Start waiving 1-way players? The best case scenario here is that another team picks them up for half-price. Or maybe the best case is that they would clear waivers and then refuse to report to the AHL, that might save Melnyk some bucks. But the worst case is that they clear and report to the AHL, meaning we're still burning Melnyk's money and getting nothing out of it. And then we'd drag some AHL players up here possibly before they are ready.

I think that what needs to happen is that Murray needs to act like he has a plan. One that builds for a 3- to 5- year horizon. Stop trading and signing for short-term fixes.

If I were Melnyk, I'd be waiting to see what happenes at deadline day, since that's really the GM's last chance to put his mark on a team. After that a GM basically has his feet on his desk until June.

If Murray is still trying to buy up rather than sell down, I'd say clean house. If Murray is making intelligent trades that build for the 3- to 5- year term... well that would get him a reprieve from me.

But I'm not Mr. Melnyk.

We also perhaps have to look at the very top of this organization, and by that I mean Mr. Melnyk himself. Melnyk was on Hockey Night In Canada a month or so ago promising that they team was going to go all the way this year and he means the Cup so buckle up.

If Melnyk seriously believes this team is a contender then Murray may be operating with both hands tied behind his back. If Melnyk is directing and vetoing Murray's planning and operations, the results... well the results might not be all that different from what we see here. Trading and signing as if the team was one small tweak, one veteran, one "dressing room character" away from being a contender.

I sincerely hope this isn't the case. If Murray can't get it done, we might have a chance by changing the GM.

If Murray is merely dancing to Melnyk's tune, well frankly we're screwed no matter who is in the GM's or coach's chairs.

I guess the question comes down to who's hand is really on the steering wheel of this organization? And beyond that... do they really know what they are doing?

Ottawa needs a plan. Ottawa needs a youth movement. Ottawa needs two or three years of awful results (kinda like this one) but with the promise that the organization is building, rather than the slow-motion collapse that last year continued into this year. Ottawa needs to make everyone and anyone available for a trade. Nobody should be safe, except perhaps Karlsson. But those trades need to be about the future. Not next week.

Or even next year.

Like I said, I'm waiting until deadline day.

Perhaps I Spoke Too Soon

I think I could stand to see a little bit of Toronto getting curb-stomped.

I am a hockey fan.

I am a hockey fan.

I believe that the game of hockey should be treated by fans first and foremost as a game -- not the be-all and end-all of all existence.

I believe that the game of hockey, when played correctly, fairly, and with passion, is one of the most beautiful exhibitions of skill and competition available today. I believe that such exhibition of skills and plays should be cheered, even when performed by other teams.

I believe that every one of todays players, on their worst days, could skate rings around me on my best day.

I believe that every one of todays players is a human being. I believe that just like all the rest of us, they have their good days and bad days, and that some days "their best effort" isn't as good as other days.

I believe that the three stars of hitting, hooking, and holding are an impediment to the game, both as-played and as-intended. When I say "hitting" I mean cheap, dangerous, and/or late hits. I believe hockey is, and should be, a physical game.

I believe that the refs are human, and that honest mistakes on their part will even out over the long run. I believe that the refs are hamstrung by both the league (which means the owners) and by the vagueness of the rulebook, but that they do their best to call a fair game.

I believe that reffing playoff hockey games different from regular season games is fundamentally dishonest. I believe that a ref's choice to not call an infraction at a critical point is just as much as, if not more of, a decision to influence a game's outcome.

I believe that fans who boo their home team are fair-weather fans, but I believe that someone who pays their money to sit in their seat can cheer or boo as they like and are answerable to no one else.

I believe that the third-point for an over-time loss is a bad idea.

I believe that the shoot out method of determining the winner of a game is inferior to sudden death victory overtime, but I also believe I have to go to work tomorrow.

I believe that the current playoff seeding method renders too much of the regular season meaningless. However I also believe I don't like "playoff hockey" so on balance having more regular season games works for me just fine.

I would rather watch my team lose a spirited, fair, and skillfully-played game 3-2 than watch them clobber another team 8-0(*).

I believe, despite all evidence to the contrary, that the Ottawa Senators will one day hoist the Stanley Cup. (I believe that day will not be in 2011).

These things I believe. I know that there are others who do not share these beliefs. I believe those who disagree have the right to disagree.

---

(*) == except if it's the Leafs

Happy Birthday

Happy Birthday to the heart of the modern Senators franchise.

Love For Jacques Martin

Jacques Martin got the bums rush out of Ottawa, and I didn't think that it was deserved at the time.

Head honcho Muckler let Martin(*) go, after yet another team which excelled during the regular season was shown the door early in the post season, with comments along the lines of "the room needs shaking up and I can't fire all the players". Which is perhaps simplistic, but on the other hand fundamentally true.

Now back from the dead Florida, Martin is once again running his system of defensive discipline with the Montreal Canadiens. Backed by a resurgent Carey Price, the Canadians are playing simple, tight hockey in their own end, waiting patiently for opportunities granted through the opposition's errors.

And it was this system which stymied the Ottawa Senators back on Tuesday(**).

What I saw on Tuesday was the Senators doing their best to create offensive chances, but the Canadiens' discipline and patient play meant that few chances came together.

Ottawa's lone goal from Foligno resulted from a power play rush that the Canadiens' mis-read, leaving Foligno alone with the puck long enough to get a shot off that snuck through Price. It was a lucky goal, sure, but if you give enough chances to a team, even Ottawa is going to get lucky occasionally.

Yes, Ottawa stopped trying in the third more than a little. But I think the first parts of the game were not entirely all bad, and if the team keeps playing together the way they played parts of the Montreal game, then good things will start to happen.

Maybe this is just diminished expectations brought on by the team's performance this year... but once you figure that playoffs are not really going to feature this spring, you'll settle for pretty much anything.(***)

But really, I thought Martin was made the scapegoat for the team at the time, and I'm more than a little pleased to see that he is once again enjoying some success.

---
(*) = Muckler, Murray, Martin, Melnyk -- The Ottawa Senators ownership and senior executives are brought to you by the letter M.

(**) == Yes, Tuesday. Life: I has one.

(***) = <include mandatory Leafs joke.>

Love for Coach Clouston

Houses Of The Hockey gives up some love for Coach Clouston.

At the end of the day, you can’t fault Clouston for where the Senators are in the standings. If Clouston, a winning coach and the best coach the Senators have had in years, can’t win with this roster, I’m not sure any other coach would fair much better.

And the fact of the matter is, other coaches have not fared better.

I said at the time that Hartsburg left that I didn't think the team's poor results were entirely his fault. The problem was that the guys on the ice were not putting in the consistent effort every night. My view was I'd like to see what Hartsburg could do with a real team before we decided if he was to be fired.

And the same problem is happening here. I've said before, I thought the problem was that 2007 happened a year too early. 2007 happened because Ray Emery played way, way over his head for the entire playoff series, and that inspired the rest of the team to increase their level of play. As a result, everyone thought that the construction of the team was complete, and we would challenge in 2008.

Reality was somewhat different, and since then we've been slowly tweaking ourselves into the current situation. While I think the guys on the ice are not playing to their capabilities, they are definitely not playing over their heads in the way required to succeed with this roster.

The other problem that GMs face is that they generally can't fire the entire roster due to contract limitations. If the GM thinks a change has to be made, the coach is the at-will employee closest to the players that can be fired.

We are still coming to grips with this cap-centric world, so while Murray has to take some of the blame for the current situation, the fact is that none of his colleagues have really shown they understand how to work the cap-centric world either. Until that happens, look for trades to be both infrequent and one-sided. Infrequent because the cap will govern any moves made, and one-sided because one side of the trade will inevitably be forced to accept less than one might otherwise consider fair. (See also Dany Heatley.)

The bottom line is that Murray has to be better about assembling the pieces. If we have to go through a dry spell, then I for one would like to see emphasis on picks and prospects, trying to trade intelligently for a future more than just 10 games away.

Until then, Clouston is a perfectly adequate coach and I don't see a reason to fire him.

Crazy

Want a crazy thought? Dany Heatley did the Senators a favor by screwing them on his way out of town.

Now while you are casting around for your torches and pitchforks, hear me out.

Put aside your Senators-red colored glasses and take a look at this year's team. I mean, really look at them. Look at the effort put in on the ice on most nights.

Last night they fired more shots at Niemi than were directed back at LeClair. Niemi may be commonly considered one of the more porous goalies on the circuit this year, but for all this artillery... nothing goes in.

Monday they played host to Edmonton, and got owned. The worst team in the west came to visit and beat them. The only goal that the Senators could muster would be a single fluky marker that bounces off of Foligno's stick then off an Oiler skate and in.

All those other efforts?

Nothing.

And this was Darth Gerber they were shelling, allegedly the single handed cause of Ottawa's now legendary collapse in 2008. A man shielded by the worst defense corps in the west. Being attacked by a team who's owner believes are destined for the finals; a team which most fans think will get to the playoffs, even if not very far.

And? At risk of repeating myself:

Nothing.

So. Let's review. This year we have:

• no primary scoring;
• no defensive discipline; and
• at least one goalie (you pick) playing over his head without any support from the guys ahead of them.

Gut check time, folks:

How much better would this be if Heatley was still here?

It would be better, sure. But how much better? Is Dany Heatley that god among men who can make the difference between a trip to the finals, and... well, this?

Well then San Jose is sure getting screwed, aren't they?

When Heatley devalued himself so that Brian Murray was forced to take a salary dump in the form of Cheechoo just for the privilege of handing over a multi-time 50-goal-scorer, he not only deprived the Senators of his services, but weakened them further by tying up resources that would prevent the Senators from even contemplating a reasonable effort at replacing even a part of it.

(No disrespect to Michalek, but he's no Dany Heatley.)

Leading us more or less inevitably to where we are today.

The Ottawa Senators are going to have to take a long, hard look in the roster. The fact of the matter is that as the team is currently on average the oldest on the ice, they will not be getting, on average, better.

While we locked up the core of the team that got us to the playoffs, we discarded for varying reasons some of the wildcards that were the difference between trying and succeeding. And it was that whole team, together, all playing well, many playing above their heads, that got to the final in 2007.

By trying to hold on to that history, hold on to the memory that we came so close to holding that parade, we have let the possibility of that dream coming true in the near future slip through our fingers.

The time has passed on tweaking this team.

The time has come, frankly, to rebuild this team.

I'd rather wander the wilderness of no-playoffs for a couple of years knowing that we were in the process of building a youth movement that could actually carry us somewhere. It would be far better to do that than to carry on as we are, staggering around in the fringes of the wilderness, hoping against hope that some miracle tweak will make everything better.

I think that Dany Heatley got us to this point sooner than we would have otherwise.

Sorry, guys.

Bring on the torches and pitchforks.