Ugh, maybe I didn't need to see the Philly game tonight. Perhaps the less said about that the better -- I'm sure the usual suspects will trot out the usual saws. Instead, lets poke some bears.So Out Of Left Field is muttering that the attendance drop at Scotiabank Place is the end of Ottawa's romance with the Senators.
The thing of it is: Ottawa isn't a Sports town. Never has been. What Ottawa is, is a government town. And as such, the residents treat their recreational pursuits as entertainment. As in, the pursuit of fun.
And losing, as we all remember from those gym classes in primary school, isn't fun.
Now there are some people in this town who are truly passionate about their sports. The thing of it is that there are not enough of them to maintain a sporting enterprise through the inevitable rough spots.
Anyone doubting this can only look to the parade of people who stepped up for their opportunity to own the Ottawa Rough Riders or Renegades or whatever. And then lost their shirt, and stepped aside for the next group in the parade. Heck, some owners even came around twice (hello Gleibermans!) When the team was winning -- at least, according to the history books, there is some suggestion that it was winning -- the fan base was there. Once the wins started to dry up, so did the fan base. The end result was the CFL left Ottawa not once, but twice.
Similarly, the triple-A baseball team. When the Lynx were winning, people flocked to the stadium. Once that ended, so did the fans. And now we have a fine baseball stadium that stands empty with insufficient parking and isn't on any major transit service.
The hype surrounding attempts to bring back the CFL or baseball to Ottawa is always interesting, because after the prospective ownership group, the most "support" seems to come from the municipal politicians and the media. What makes this interesting is that both of these groups end up being the loudest supporters, but probably expect to go to the games for free -- or even, as is the case of some sports reporters, get paid to go. If you ask the average fan in the city (forget the average citizen) you get indifference, at best.
Now in some respects hockey is an exception to this rule. The 67's have a built-in fan base of hockey parents plus kids who are hoping to be the next generation. They also have very modest costs, which means they can live within their gate receipts. And the Senators will always have a value intrinsic to the NHL franchise that they represent.
However, as far as the fans go, there is a real possibility that a lack of production on the ice will be reflected in a lack of fans in the arena.
The more we look at this season unfold, the more the Senators start to look like a mid-field team, one which at best can be described as hoping to sneak into the 7th or 8th place for the playoffs. Management isn't giving me the feeling that they know they should be rebuilding the team for a run a few years down the road -- Murray's actions seem to indicate he thinks that he can still "tweak" this team back into a contender. And I really think that ship has sailed.
The problem is that the average fan has to be asking himself: will I be entertained if I go to this game? And if his definition of "entertainment" is "winning", then he is less likely to get the money together and go. I mean, if I'm dropping $200+ on a seat and parking (or the required hour on a bus) and "food", I damn well better get a win out of it, right?
Ottawa has neither the deep tradition of hockey that provides a large number of people who love the game such as Toronto. They also don't have a fan base used to supporting their team through long, painful droughts such as... well, Toronto. And they don't have the sheer numbers of population within travel distance of the arena to ensure that even if the percentage of people who fall into the above two categories starts to dip, they will still be likely to sell enough tickets to make money on the whole exercise no matter what the product on the ice is like. Such as... ok, I'm going to say Toronto again.
In the short term, Ottawa fans will return when the results on the ice return.
If the team lasts into the long term, eventually there will be a tradition of following the team. The kids today will turn into the fans of tomorrow, and as long as the team can hold their attention they have a really good chance of building a more robust (and failure-tolerant) fan base.
As a business, the Senators' ace is the value of the NHL franchise. And since that franchise can be moved (it is possible), there will always be a lineup of people willing to put money down to own it. They may prefer to move the franchise to another market, one where they think the team might be more viable... but they won't just blow away in the wind like so many CFL teams have.
Now personally I think this is overblown hype at this point, yes, even after I've written all the above. Looking at the state of the economy, with people worried about their jobs and all is not conducive to $200 trips to the hockey arena. I think any attendance dip both here in Ottawa as well as Toronto can be traced more to people (and businesses) worrying that they can't afford to spend the money than to a drop in interest in the team. At this point, it's a warning, not a disaster in the making.
Make no mistake about it, a prolonged drop in gate receipts will be a stern test of the current team ownership. But really, to succeed in this town you have to be a winner.
