A Cut Above

Craig Anderson cuts his hand making dinner after last night's whooping of the Washington Capitals.

...you can't make this stuff up, can you.

The team has been pretty lucky, injury-wise, so far this season. Michalek was out with a concussion, and both Phillips and Gonchar spent some time on the injury list. But if there is one player who has been single-handedly carrying this team so far this season, it's Erik Karlsson. No wait, I mean Craig Anderson.

Look at last night. Craig Anderson stopped 33 of 35 shots on goal. The two Washington goalies combined to stop 19 of 25 (with one empty-netter at the end of the game). So yes, "Mister" Anderson was the man last night. But let's review: Ottawa gave up 35 shots on goal. Unless the goalie is the man, the end result could have been much, much uglier.

With all respect to Alex "back from the goalie graveyard" Auld*, the problem in Ottawa has not yet settled down to something you could call weak goaltending. Even if Auld is only average, it is going to get ugly. If he's merely human, we'll probably get the opportunity to watch "Goalie Of The Future" Lehner get lit up like a pinball machine a couple of times again.

This team has got to play better in front of their goalies. Only then can we start appreciating** how good the goaltending we have actually is.

As far as the standings go, however, I feel pretty good. The only teams with genuine chances to catch Ottawa are Toronto, Winnipeg, and Washington, and I think the gap that Ottawa has now will permit them to retain a place in the playoffs by playing only .500 hockey through Anderson's absence. It pains me to say it, but Toronto isn't as bad as the last-10 makes them look, while I think Winnipeg's last-10 numbers of 5-4-1 are probably a bit above where they should be.

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* = stupid nickname, I know, but what you going to do?

** = although it is nice to watch Toronto demonstrate that they are no better than Ottawa at refraining from fitting goalies under the bus at the first sign of trouble.

Welcome To Ottawa, Gents

So my question of last week to a coworker was, "How long before the blogosphere turns on Anderson and Auld?"

Well, not too damn long as it happens:

Craig Anderson and Alex Auld have been brutal, and there’s no way to sugar coat that. When either of them lets in a softie, the whole team deflates and you can quickly bet that three or four more goals will follow in short order.

Now while one blog is by no means the whole blogosphere... the tide has turned.

Of course it would be silly of me to repeat the same things I said when Darth Gerber was the goat: these guys are just hanging their goaltenders out to dry, the goalie is only the sixth guy to not stop the puck, Martin Brodeur couldn't win behind these guys -- no, not Martin "No Relation" Brodeur, although lets face it he could win behind these guys either.

So yeah, welcome to Ottawa, Mr. Anderson and Mr. Auld. Pay no attention to the fans in the 300s who are already carving out your headstones for the goalie graveyard.

The problem is one of defense, or to be more specific a lack of defense. We have a veteren corps of "Disinterested" Gonchar, "Pillar Of The Community" Phillips, and "I Can't Think Of A Witty Nickname" Kuba. These veterans are supposedly mentoring the next generation of defense, which itself is made up of Karlsson, Rundblad, and Cowen. Oh and Brian "Why Am I Still Here" Lee who fits somewhere in between.

Either the mix-and-matching of veterans and kids isn't working, or some of these veterans/kids are not very good. And maybe it's just a case of development and experience, but personally I think Kuba's had his chance.

All this goes to show that it's going to be a long ride.

Anderson Next To Test Goalie Curse

My favorite headline from today's action: Craig Anderson agrees to spend 4 years in Ottawa goalie graveyard:

GM Bryan Murray announced that goalie and ice girls aficionado Craig Anderson(notes) has been signed to a 4-year deal; TSN is reporting Anderson "will earn $12.75 million over the course of his contract, averaging $3.187 million per season. The club takes a cap hit of $3.18 million in the deal."

Now to be fair, I'm sure that "Mister" Anderson will only have to spend a year or two in the graveyard, then he can join previous answers to the curse like Ray Emery in being paid to either play in Bingo or not be here at all.

Personally my objection to this contract is the term because A) not too many goalies remain good over this timeframe, and B) if they did, Ottawa wouldn't end up with one (see also Leclaire, Elliot, Auld, Emery, Gerber...)

I'm just concerned that Anderson is being painted in the blogosphere as some kind of savior -- whereas he will ultimately be blamed for the poor play of the team on the ice in front of him (see also Leclaire, Elliot, Auld, Emery, Gerber...)

Must Laugh, Lest I Cry Instead

The Ottawa Sun claims "Mister" Anderson has been injured, but won't talk about what the problem is.

Indulging in the Internet's favorite pass time of drawing out trends from one or two small datapoints, I'd have to say that "Mister" Anderson is threatening to turn into another Pascal Leclaire: play lights-out at the start of his tenure, then play badly, then cop to an injury... the next step is he vanishes for the rest of the seasons.

Welcome to Ottawa, "Mister" Anderson. You'll fit right in.

</humour>

Fear Not

...but I think that while the current goalie tandem of "Mister" Anderson and "I need a nickname" McElhinney might notch more wins that would otherwise be expected down the stretch, the end outcome will be one that is most favorable to a good draft position.

Of our two new miracle men, Anderson seems the steadier. It is hard to draw conclusions from just a single outing* about McElhinney's viability as a goalie, but he seemed less calm in net and thrashed around a lot more -- a problem which has plagued Ottawa goalies in the past (hello Pascal Leclaire!).

The recent wins Ottawa has produced over such top-of-the-east teams as Philadelphia and Tampa -- not to mention "hot" teams like New Jersey -- I think is more due both to those teams underestimating Ottawa since they are in the league's basement, and to the AHL callups playing with the nothing-to-lose that they have.

Eventually reality will kick in -- better teams will start taking the Senators more seriously, and the kids will start to make mistakes.

Fear not for thy draft pick, Ottawa.
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*= but since this is the Internet, why let that stop anyone?

Just Visiting

So having a bunch of time this weekend where I basically do nothing but wait for the kids to start fighting so I can break them up, I got to thinking. And I'm not sure we should get exited about "Mister" Anderson remaining here past the end of this season.

Let's game this out.

Lets say Anderson basically keeps playing lights out for the rest of the season. The Senators win a bunch of 1-goal games that they would usually lose (and by a larger margin than one goal, too... but that's another problem.) The Senators rise in the draft and lose out on the cream of the crop. Anderson basically resurrects his reputation as a miracle worker -- and after back-stopping Ottawa, especially after Ottawa had shipped out anything/everything closely resembling talent, to any number of wins, who wouldn't call him a miracle worker? -- and expects to get paid accordingly.

"Accordingly" would appear to be "more than $7.5 million over two years", which is what he turned down in Colorado. He might want more years, but I suspect that the per-year amount of money he'd sign for would be at least what he turned down in Colorado.

Ottawa is still very much a "rebuild" team. Would he even want to be here, knowing that his term would still be likely shorter than the "success" end of the rebuild? Never mind that the fans and media stand at the ready to run him out of town at the first sniff of being a mere mortal. I say that unless he falls in love with the city, he says no, and elects to try free agency. Given the state of the goalie market, where anyone remotely resembling a hot goalie can command big bucks, he'll probably find the money he wants at a team further along their rebuild curve.

So, long story short: if Anderson succeeds, he's probably gone. And Ottawa is still short two goalies.

What's the alternative?

OK, so Anderson returns to the form that got him canned in Colorado. And really, with this Ottawa team in front of him, there are not many people who would expect a stellar record resulting from the end of this season. The media and fans demote him from Mighty Leaf Blower to Goat in three days.

And frankly, would the team even want a goalie that "fit" the poor state of the rest of this team? The Senators would pass on resigning him, and he gets dumped into free agency, where he will probably find a back-up gig somewhere, although not for the money or term he wants.

So short story... err, shorter... if Anderson fails, he's gone, and Ottawa is still short two goalies.

So "Mister" Anderson is either going to be a delightful interlude or business as usual... and then we get to see what Murray (or whomever Melnyk hires to replace Murray) is really going to do about goaltending.

The only way I see this happening differently is if Anderson shows flashes of brilliance, but not enough to resurrect his reputation as a miracle worker. He doesn't get the signals that free agency will result in buckets of money for him. He for some reason decides he likes it here. He figures that the rebuild will be shorter rather than longer, and that the team's future depth is defense -- which will help him do his job, meaning that even if he ends up with losing games it will be because of problems at the far end of the ice. Murray doesn't get fired, and signs him after the regular season -- but before free agency -- for a couple of years for around $3 million per.

If all that happens... he'll stay.

But frankly at this point I think he won't be back.

As Long As There's A Process

So there is an immediate upside to Anderson: he can win err not lose a shootout.

<yay>

We are now awaiting this singular performance to be the cornerstone of Mr. Anderson being hailed "the next franchise goalie" by the masses, an event which will be quickly followed up by those same masses trying to run him out of town after two consecutive losses.

The Hits Keep On Coming

Brian Elliot has been shipped to the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for similarly-struggling goalie Craig Anderson.

(Am I the only one who hears Agent Smith from The Matrix saying "Mister Anderson" every time they read Crag's last name? ...yeah, probably. Ok then.)

Elliot wasn't an elite goalie by any means, but I think his name is best added to the (long) list of goalies who's performances were worsened by the dubious quality of the players in front of him. I know the blogosphere loved to hate on him.

I am a bit stunned that Murray managed to find a taker for Elliot (my precise words when reading the news were "Holy Sh!!"). However, the exchange of struggling pending-FA goalies (Elliot is R, Anderson a U) points to two clubs who think that maybe a change of scenery might spark a return to form for at least one of these players -- and frankly at this point in the season the clubs both probably think they have nothing else to lose.

Hard to see who wins or loses with this trade. But at the rate things are going, we won't have to worry about it too long, as there is sure to be more movement.