Amnesty Targets History

So I lost the good fight on amnesty clauses -- I guess it was too attractive a dumb idea to not get tapped. Teams will get two amnesty buyouts each -- one this year and one next.

Which brings us to this article listing potential amnesty targets for each team.

What gets me is that if you read down the list, it reads like a whos-who of Ottawa Senators history:

• Marian Hossa in Chicago
• Anton Volchenkov in New Jersey
• Alexi Yashin in Brooklyn New York
• Wade Reddin in the other New York
• Dany Heatley in Minnesota
• Martin Havlat in San Jose

I suspect if you look at it, you'll see more Senators alumni on that list than any other team.

Man, those glory days were something, eh?

And really, who on today's roster is going to attract the same kind of reminiscing?  Spezza?  Yes.  Karlsson?  Absolutely.  Alfredsson?  Without a doubt.  And after that?... does anyone seriously think we are going to be remembering the glory days of Colin Greening?

It was fun while it lasted.  Now we're just trying to not be Toronto.

Refs Steal Another Point

So really the only thing I want to say about the Buffalo-Ottawa game last night is: that disallowed goal was bogus. The refs waved it off as no goal, and the war room didn't over-ride "because the whistle blew before the puck crossed the line". Which is crap. HNIC replayed the sequence, and once could clearly see the puck go in, and then out again before the sound of the whistle came across.

"Interesting" was the HNIC commentator's view, but he didn't follow up on that.

"Interesting" meaning "That statement is totally contradicted by the evidence we've just examined", maybe. The only way you come to a conclusion like that is by buying into the whole "intent to blow" theory that says that the play is dead when the ref decides to blow the whistle, not necessarily when he blows it.

So yeah not to say that the Senators wouldn't have blown another goal lead, but frankly it would be unlikely. So I think Buffalo basically stole two points last night. Ottawa was compensated by being permitted one. That's more important to Buffalo at this point in the season than it is to Ottawa, but it is still bogus.

Bad officiating aside it was a reasonably entertaining game.

• Karlsson's now one goal shy of the franchise record for goals in a single season by a defenseman. HNIC says's he's now got 69 points in 69 games -- that's a defenseman producing at a point-per-game scoring rate. We're all just hoping this isn't merely a career year and that he'll continue to grow, because the last thing you want to do is over pay for declining production.  One good goal from the slot, and one billiards goal off the back of Buffalo goalie's shoulder -- shouldn't have worked, but he's clearly got the magic touch these days.
• Spezza's looking tentative with the puck at times, but he's still attempting -- and frequently achieving -- those outrageous dangles that I love to watch.  Still magically showing up in almost the right place at the right time to get the rebound or the cross-ice pass.

What I'd Do

So it has been a couple of weeks since the money behind the team announced that he'd seen the light, the cup isn't coming to Ottawa this year after all. Mr. Melnyk also announced that both Clouston and Murray would remain in their jobs for the rest of the year.

Color me underwhelmed.

I am of two minds about this.

Firstly, I approve of keeping Clouston as the coach for the rest of the year. Mr. Melnyk is already paying two other guys to not coach the team, he doesn't need a third. I've long said that the coach isn't the problem with this team.

Secondly, I have mixed feelings about keeping Murray. I think that the on-ice product that the team has now has to be laid at his feet, no matter how badly the ice was tilted against him by his predecessor. Murray's handling of the big team's roster can only be described as poor, as if he is spending his time looking for the single missing piece that would return the team to their 2007 form. The problem is that those single pieces that he's come up with have underperformed, while at the same time key pieces have been slipping through his fingers.

On the plus side, he's drafted like a bear. The prospect larder is well stocked, perhaps to the point where the team will have to trade some defense prospects to avoid wasting their value. Forwards-wise we have some prospects who should fit in the second- and third-line positions quite nicely, even if we don't have any elite prospects in the pipeline.

The problem is, the draft is a long time away. The run up to deadline day has been about trading, and Murray's trading record isn't very strong.

He's also still making noises about a "one year rebuild", which isn't that much of a softening of his "one tweak and we're in" pattern of action over the last few years. So while he says everyone but Alfie and (we presume) Karlsson are for sale, I don't buy it.

So personally I'm worried about keeping him in place through this important trading period. The only thing keeping him in place as far as I'm concerned is a lack of a credible candidate to drop in right now to replace him.

My personal attitude is that we are looking at a full rebuild here, and the sooner Melnyk signs on to that the sooner we'll start actually building something and stop sinking further behind. This means a three, maybe five year program.

With that kind of schedule you have to wonder where your players are going to be in their careers when the stretch run comes. Of the current team today, who is still going to be playing like they belong on a contending team in three years?

If it were me:

Forwards:

Alfie: the fans love him, and he's given his life and soul for this team. That said, if a contending team offered anything, I'd approach Alfie about the trade. Alfredsson deserves a cup ring, and Ottawa won't be able to deliver him one. If a chance comes up, he deserves the opportunity to take it if he wants. Personally I doubt he'd take the chance. But should the opportunity arise, the decision needs to be his.

Spezza: Like him or loath him, Spezza is an elite centre. He can playmake out of nothing and when he's on, magic can happen. That said, where will he be in three to five years? Right now if a decent offer came, I'd trade him if possible because I know the team surrounding him can't make decent use of his skills, and I wonder if he'll still have it when the stretch run comes. And this better be a trade where in hind-sight we look back and say "that was worth it". No Heatley-style trades. Odds are he's untradable due to cap and no-movement. I'll enjoy his play if he stays, he's definitely an asset. He'll be the leadership of the immediate future if he stays.

Michalek: If I can keep him cheap, I'd keep him. He isn't the elite we perhaps hoped he would mature into, but he's a grinder and can make things happen. His speed seems to be coming back, too. He'd provide a good sense of leadership for the younger players.

Fisher: I would trade him if I could. Fisher is a popular player with the ability to score and make things happen, bu the bottom line is that he hasn't been playing to his salary. I would trade him for a salary dump from another team as long as the incoming contract ended before Fisher's does, just to get his money off the books.

Foligno: I would keep him. I suspect he will be cheap to re-sign next time around because he certainly isn't lighting up the numbers right now. I personally think he's capable of more, and if I can have it cheap, I'll take it.

Kelly: Probably too expensive to keep, trade if I can. I would prefer to keep, since the Kelly-Ruutu-Neil line provides energy, is entertaining to watch, and is liked by the fans. Plus they can get goals here and there too.

Kovalev: I love the guy's play to death, but he hasn't been worth $5 million by any stretch of the imagination. Trade him if I can -- even at firesale rates. Don't re-sign if I can't.

Neil: Keep for now. Personally I doubt contenders will be trading for his kind of "character".

Regin: Like Foligno, is underperforming and will probably be cheap to re-sign. I say keep.

Ruutu: His contract is up again this year. While he's a bit expensive for my tastes, I'd keep him, but I wouldn't consider it the end of the world if someone else wanted to trade for him.

Shannon: Another underperforming youngster. I say keep.

Smith. See Shannon, Regin, Foglino. Keep.

Winchester: I think his window is closing. Trade if we can.

Defence:

Campoli: If we can keep him cheap, he might have a spot. The problem is that right now we are drowning in 3rd-pairing defencemen. If we can get value for him in trade, I say take it.

Carkner: He is what passes for muscle on this team, and I think for next year anyways we'd need to keep that around until we see if any of the new kids are capable of stepping up.

Gonchar: He's unmovable, but I'd keep him even if he wasn't. No wait, stop laughing. While he may be past his best-before date, and is almost definitely overpaid for what he produces, this guy has been there, done that, at the highest levels. Keeping him around should be a good on-ice influence on these allegedly elite defense prospects like Karlsson and Cowen et al.

Karlsson: I would keep him unless someone offered me the crown jewels. And I'd make them throw in a 1st and a 2nd on top of it. If the right offer came, I'd take it. But the price will be very, very high.

Kuba: I wonder if he is perhaps at the end of his line, he's making too many mistakes and doesn't seem to have much upside. I wouldn't protect him from a trade.

Lee: Seriously, why is Lee even still here? I'd trade him for future considerations, just to get rid of him. Plus it might get his career going as well. Neither the Senators nor Lee are benefiting from the current arrangement.

Phillips: I like Phillips' play. That said, he might have the kind of character that a contender might like. If the right offer came along, trade.

In goal:

Elliott: I'm not one to fit Elliott under the bus by any means. I think he's suffered from poor efforts on the ice in front of him, and to expect excellence from a player in that situation is virtually impossible. Even though I don't think he's a bad goalie, I don't think Elliott will be back next year.

LeClaire: Also suffered from poor efforts in front of him, even when he did play like the elite he's shown flashes of in the past he was let down by a total lack of offense from the guys up front. However since he can't stay healthy for 60 consecutive minutes it is entirely academic. He's untradable. He's injured, so he's unplayable. I think he's done here in Ottawa.

Lehner: Goalie of the future? I dunno, I don't see it. His two starts he was lit up like a pinball machine, even if both times the team provided some offense for once (even if ultimately in a losing cause). I think he'll be the next in a long line of guys who play reasonably well, but not well enough to compensate for a lack of offense up front and poor defensive coverage behind them. He'll be flavor of the month, then get run out of town like Elliott, Auld, Gerber, Emery...

What I'd want in trade: Primarily, picks and prospects. I'll take rookies with potential as well. I'll prefer forwards, since my larder is a bit bare there and I'm reasonably well stocked with defense. I'd make available select prospects in my farm system, but not too many of them, and they won't be cheap.

For long term contracts going out, I'll take short-term salary back as long as it ends this year.

My Plan:

I'm hoping for a three-year rebuild here, but planning for a five-year. Next year is going to be a brutal year for the team, since it will be composed of rookies and veterans who are perhaps past their best. If next year's rookies look like a core we can build around, then I'd go for the three year program; if not, I'd wait another year to see who else we can draft.

As far as my veterans go, I would keep who I could fit from the existing team. The fans like guys like Spezza and Fisher, plus the energy line of Neil-Kelly-Ruutu is entertaining.

In goal I want to grow my own goalie rather than trade for someone who might or might not be done. If Lehner's the guy then great, but I would still be on the prowl for another hot prospect. I'd also be looking for a senior goalie, someone who can be steady in net and can provide mentoring to Lehner (or whomever the next flavor of the month is) before he too gets run out of town, but frankly I'd expect I can pick up someone cheap in free agency for that role.

That's my plan. Not quite fire everyone, but trade who I can, discard who I can, and pack the team with kids with potential. Build the defense around Karlsson. Keep some veterans around to mentor the kids and entertain the fans here and there.

But what do I know?

Crystal Ball

Oh oh:

According to three sources, the LA Kings are still very much in the market to add a "major player" before camp opens. That player? At least two sources agree the kings are once again targeting Jason Spezza.

Now first of all, just because the Kings want Spezza doesn't mean they are going to get him. And second of all, Murray would be an idiot to avoid talking to the Kings about Spezza on the off chance that they are willing to give us the moon in exchange for him.

The problem is that LA is probably NOT going to give us the moon.

If Spezza goes, it puts lie to everything that Murray has been saying through the off-season, that he thinks this team is ready to compete at a higher level. That competitiveness rests on the cornerstone of Jason Spezza. If Spezza is shipped out, it means that Ottawa is in a rebuilding phase.

And it occurs to me, it would go totally against the philosophy that landed Gonchar in free agency. That was a move designed to pay off over the next couple of years, not five years down the line after a rebuilding phase.

Trading Spezza for current talent would be a waste, if not a net loss. Trading him for picks and prospects, even a franchise player prospect, is a lottery.

LA would have to offer the moon to get Spezza, and I don't think they'll do that.

So even if this rumor is true, I don't think anything short of a blockbuster would ses it actually come to anything.

Don't Trade Spezza

Black Aces wonders why the blogosphere is against trading Spezza when the media seems hell-bent for it.

Personally, I'm astounded that people think we should trade Spezza. He averages almost a point a game, he's second on the all-time Senators scoring list, and his game has improved so much in the last year.

I know I am beating a horse that's been well-beat elsewhere here. But seriously -- what do people expect is going to be the return for a trade? And who is going to step up to be the top center if he goes? Mike Fisher is a snappy guy, but he isn't a #1 center.

Seriously. We've been here before. (Even to the point of linking to Black Aces again.)

Mendez On Spezza

Sportsnet's Ian Mendez takes the Ottawa Media to the woodshed for their treatment of Jason Spezza.

The Blind Leading The Blank

SenShot talkes about Bruce Garrioch. This moved me to write this comment in reply:

I think you give Boo Boo too much credit. History has shown that there's no place in the news, sports news especially, for fair, reasoned, balanced discussion. It is all about shock value and scooping the opposition. The mere fact that you pay attention to him means that at some level his crazy antics are working. Me? I read about what he's up to when you or other 'bloggers write about him.

Admit it, if Boo Boo had been right about the Kings, it wouldn't have mattered that he'd pulled it out of his ass, he'd have looked fucking brilliant.

I think the fundamental problem is that Ottawa sports fans in general are bandwagonists -- they are there when the times are good, and absent when the times are not so good (see also the CFL and the Ottawa Lynx). The problem is that bandwagonists are also lazy fans, they look for the easy answer (Hey! That centerman keeps doing those no-look drop-giveaways!) and not the hard ones (Hey!... um.)

This is why goalies get run out of town. Everyone blames the guy in the crease, but the five guys on the ice (and/or in the penalty box as the case may be) gets a free pass for some reason. I don't think Gerber, Emery, or LeClaire were as bad as the guys in front of them made them look. (Yeah, LeClaire isn't gone yet, but if Spezza goes or July 1 passes... well I think he's next on the hit list, miracle in game 5 not withstanding.)

For a bandwagonist, sports are supposed to be about fun. And for a professional sport that you pay money to go to, "fun" means "winning", and since the home team is the one there most of the time, the home team is the one you want to win. And let's face it, if you are a casual fan who's shelling out $100 to $200 a pop for a night out (plus the required 45 minutes in the parking lot), you want some FUN for your money.

Personally I have my doubts about this team. They were streaky, and only rarely showed the depth and discipline that are needed in the playoffs. There's something fundamental missing, and I'm starting to doubt that something can be found while the current core of the team (Alfredsson, Spezza... um?) are still going to be productive. And given that, wouldn't it be better to trade them now while they have value, in exchange for longer term assets that can be built up?

I don't want to say yes, but it's Murray's job to look at hard questions like this to see if there is an answer either way, no matter who in the media is banging whatever drum.

The media's job is the same as the politician, to figure out where their audience is going and to get out in front of them. And that's all Boo Boo and his ilk are doing.

5 Things To Be Happy About From 2009-2010

Well summer has come to Ottawa. The weather is nice and my kids have a brand new play structure in the back yard to play on. Sure, it might be nicer to be continuing down the playoffs towards a Stanley Cup, but really I don't mind so much. In any case, here's my list of things to be happy about from this just finished season.

Playoffs

This team wasn't supposed to make the playoffs at all, or at the most, scrabble in at the tail end of the position 6-7-8 logjam of mediocrity that the East features so much of. Instead, we finished 5th, and made the defending Stanley Cup champions earn their round 1 victory.

As for the round 1 itself, considering that we were running without minute-munching defenseman Kuba, defense-coverage-magnet Kovalev, or either of the "parts" we got in exchange for Heatley -- the fact that we still made Pittsburgh earn their round 1 victory is an achievement in itself. And standing tall, fighting through to a triple-overtime win in game 5 to bring the series back home for game 6, granting team owner Melnyk an unexpected playoff gate -- I think that put this all together and this year was a definite success.

Secondary Scoring

...as in, we had plenty this year.

This year the team had credible threats on all four lines most of the year. Instead of past years where the top line had to do it all, we got a good year from Fisher, quality production from Michalek, and a streaky set of performances from Kovalev.

And I forget how many times the grinder line of Neil-Kelly-Rutuu came up with a big goal to either take the game or to swing the momentum back in Ottawa's favor.

Having such productive lines gave opposing coaches fits, as they'd have to pick which lines to cover closely and which to risk against.

Jason Spezza's New-Found Defensive Discipline

Spezza has shown more willingness to get back after the opposition gets going. He's more willing to get in and grind in his own zone, rather than just floating around waiting for the outlet pass to happen (since lets face it we pay Kovalev a lot of money to do that). I like this new Spezza, and I hope that it continues.

Overall it would be nice if there was more in terms of point production, but lets face it we as fans will always say that. Rumor is that the no-trade clause kicks in this July 1st, and I sincerely hope he isn't traded ahead of that.

Erik Karlsson

At the beginning of the year I said I would like to see him sent down to Bingo in order to get his game together. Turns out that the braintrust at the team came to the same conclusion, and down he went, where he played very good hockey, ending up running the power play down there. Having proved he had the basic hockey skills to do the job, the time came for him to get his NHL-level experience and make his NHL-level rookie mistakes.

Which he did, costing the team several goals at times; but his offensive senses are wonderful, and once he has settled in through the next year or two we can hope that he can develop into something special.

Daniel Alfredsson

What more can be said of Alfredsson that hasn't already been said before? He played his 1000th game as an Ottawa Senator. He brought his A-game every night, playing at both ends. He played top line or shut down. He ran the power play and penalty kill special teams. He played hurt, he played hard, he played with heart.

He is without a doubt the heart and soul of this team.

The one thing I want to mention specifically is his comments after he was injured in Pittsburgh earlier in the year. While the commentators were on the TV baying for blood (followed by much of the blog-o-sphere the next time the two teams met), Alfredsson himself said that the play was a clean, legal hit and it was his own fault for putting himself in a vulnerable position. Now that's class.

Unfortunately the clock is running down on Alfredsson. We say this every year, but it is a fact of life that years of playing hockey will eventually catch up with him and he will have to stop. No one, not even Alfredsson, can continue to do this forever. We can only hope that before that happens the team can get him the Stanley Cup ring he so richly deserves. (And hey, it'd be nice for the rest of us to have the Stanley Cup here in Ottawa.)

Bonus: The Continuing Disaster That Is The Toronto Maple Leafs

The Leafs continue to suck, and that's never a bad thing. What's so bewildering is that given the brain trust in charge of them, why are they so bad? It boggles the mind.

I would still like to see the Leafs and the Senators fighting for top spot in the conference -- or even the Leafs-Senators games being competitive affairs -- but in the absence of that I'll settle for the status quo.

Thursday Wasted

No, really, why did I give my Thursday night to watch that?

It didn't start out bad, really. The predictably terrible officiating -- the first penalty to Ottawa for tripping really should have been accompanied by one to Atlanta for diving -- and the predictable error leading to the opening Atlanta goal, those I can live with. That's part of being a Senators fan. But Ottawa spent a good deal of time in the offensive zone applying good pressure and getting good chances. "Keep trying boys," I told the TV, "they'll come."

But then the officials really got going. Three of the first seven penalties assigned to Ottawa were either iffy or flat out not penalties. At one point, we were five-to-one behind in terms of power plays. That's not clean play, that's poor officiating. And Sutton's two minutes for "elbowing" on a perfectly clean and legal check -- not to the head, not from behind, not away from the play -- THAT was PURE GARBAGE. Even someone like ME, who isn't keen on all the hitting and such that goes on, can see THAT.

Let's be fair. Neil's goal in the second should have been called back due to Kelly's presence in the crease. But with this kind of officiating, who the hell knows what you are going to get.

Through the end of two the Senators played well, getting most of the shots and the vast majority of the quality chances. And then the third started. The Senators just crumbled and gave up stupid goals due to poor coverage or running around in their own end. Again. Leaving Elliot hanging out there on his own, going the wrong way on the play because nobody's covering the guy sliding through the slot. Again.

Spezza getting that break. And. Not. Burying. It. Again. Dammit.

I don't blame Elliot for this. You can't, really. But for a(n allegedly) playoff-bound team, we shouldn't be talking about these kinds of miscues and collapses and all around bad hockey with the frequency that we are.

Saturday is an afternoon game, but fortunately for me I have something else scheduled so will be unable to watch it.

This isn't fun any more. I want my evening back.

Sens Beat Another Dominator

OK -- my number one comment for this game is where the hell are the refs at the end of the second? Stajan piles into Kelly just off the boards and both refs stand there with their thumbs up their asses. Letting a dangerous hit like that go uncalled is why the players feel justified in piling on each other. And what happens? Players pile on each other. Call the damn rules, OK? That's your job. If you don't call the rules, then it doesn't matter what rules you make because if the refs ignore them, the players will ignore them, and we'll be back to the league's Random Wheel of Consequences.

OK. Enough of such drivel.

Tonight's win is the first time Ottawa has beat Calgary since some time in 2004. Now this is distorted by the lockout and the fact that east and west just don't play each other very often in this new-look NHL, but Calgary has owned Ottawa pretty consistently.

It was turnover-city for most of the early-going. The color-commentator said that the NHL recorded 14 turnovers in the first period, and by his count they had missed 3 or 4. Most of those had been Ottawa turnovers, but fortunately Calgary didn't capitalize too often.

500-game-man Jonathan Cheechoo had a good game tonight, lots of quality chances, some he just didn't put away. Cheechoo is one of those guys I want to like. He always seems to be putting in the effort, even if it comes up half a step late or half a step slow, which is why he comes up short in the results as well. He's aggressive on the forecheck, and isn't afraid to grind in the corners. Tonight's effort was rewarded when his pass to Michalek banked off a Calgary skate to give Spezza an opportunity he didn't miss, one of those bounces that go in rather than one that doesn't. If he keeps getting chances like this, the goals will come.

So right now I am undecided as to whether Cheechoo stepped up his game for his pairing with Spezza and Michalek, or whather Spezza and Michalek flattered Cheechoo's effort. Probably a little of column A, and a little from column B. Hopefully for him this line will stay together, and hopefully for all of us his game will continue to rise.

Next up: Washington comes to town on Thursday. Buckle up, boys, we probably won't win this one. But here's hoping the team brings their A-game so we can see how this team stacks up to one of the best in the East right now.

Apparently I'm late with the Spinal Tap jokes

...but these guys go to eleven. So they're better.

So as per usual, I tune in for the third. And as per usual, I was totally wrong about my prediction: the Senators were up 2-0 against Vancouver. Un. Friggin'. Believable.

My take-away from the game: do they shoot Vancouver games with a different film speed? Because holy crap are these guys fast. All four lines. Zip, zoom, zapow. The Senators were working hard to keep up, and kept the energy up going the other way too -- the third featured some real end-to-end action.

Too bad about Karlsson getting injured, but as has been pointed out elsewhere getting hurt now means he has two extra weeks to get healthy again through the Olympic break. Karlsson is really blossoming as a player, and I think a lot of commentators (me included) feel a bit sheepish for underrating him at the beginning of the season. He did his time in the AHL, where he did very well. However I don't think many people expected his absence to be a net negative to the team this soon in his career...

Nice to see Spezza continue his scoring streak, and nice to see Alfredsson continue to see returns on his constant hard work.

Fabulous to see, and the win makes it all the more sweeter.

Next up: the Leafs. Fresh from blowing a two-point lead in New Jersey, they will be at home and they will be mad. And tired from the travel, so really it's all good. This one will be very winnable for the Senators.

8 in a row

Busy busy elsewhere, but it looks like nothing here seriously needs my attention -- eight in a row including wins against teams which dominated the Senators earlier in the year.

Watching the game tonight on TV you could see the confidence in the guys playing -- Michalek's highlight-reel dangle was something the team wouldn't even attempt during the five-game slump they went through, but tonight both Spezza and Michalek were dangling pucks, while Kovalev continues his games of keep-away with the opposition.

And what's the key? Well Alfredsson has been counting up the points since his return. Spezza has a goal in five consecutive games now. And Michalek continues to look dangerous all over the ice. Combine production from your top players with a goaltender who is playing steady, steady hockey, and you end up with a team which is confident front to back.

The main thing is that the confidence has permeated back through the defense corps. These are still the guys who we were berating three weeks ago, and while their play has improved I don't think there has been any magical rehabilitation. The defense corps are clearly playing over their heads, which is fine while it lasts but expecting it to last through the rest of the season and into the post season is more than a little unrealistic. I'm sure that the commentators will be back to slamming our defense players before the season is over.

Of course now everyone is wondering if Elliot is "the guy", forgetting that at the end of last year he was "the goat". My view right now is that he is running a hot streak and benefiting from the discipline and confidence on the ice in front of him. He gave up the the first goal tonight, but Ottawa didn't get deflated and kept hammering back to take the lead, and the game. If the team in front of him sags, Elliot won't be the savior.

You have to think that the ninth in a row, which would be a franchise record, is really within reach when they host Montreal on Saturday afternoon. As long as the team doesn't get cocky, and continues to play with the discipline and confidence that they have been, it is possible.

But right now the team is on a hot streak. Even though the Senators are beating some mighty mighty teams, I still think the pendulum will even out a bit more before the post season. And realistically, the East is still to clogged to count our playoff spot before it hatches. Or something.

All that and some Leafs fans are having a miserable year -- what else could be better!

Slim Down, Not Bulk Up

Silver Seven Sens wants to know who you would trade for Ilya Kovalchuk from the Atlanta Thrashers.

My answer? No one.

Look, Kovalchuk is a talented player, of that there is no doubt. He even isn't "enigmatic" like Alex Kovalev is.

There are three problems with this idea. The first problem is he is in a contract year and he is going UFA over the summer. He is the very definition of the word "rental". In the unlikely event he does sign with Ottawa, it will be for big bucks, which will come at the cost of someone else.

The second is that right now Atlanta is very much the definition of the term "blow up your team" and so won't be looking for short-term skilled acquisitions -- they want more picks and prospects, something to rebuild around for longer term success.

The third is that such a trade does absolutely nothing to solve the issues in the defense corps.

The real question is: why are you considering this? Do you seriously think that adding Kovalchuk to the team, with the resulting immediate team loss of some kind of talent going the other way plus the inevitable combination of picks and prospects, is going to make this team go deep this post season? Because if you are not, you are wasting your time.

The time to sell your long term future to rent some additional skill is when you are making a run.

The Citizen has an article detailing an allegedly sorry state of Ottawa's farm system, dumping responsibility for the whole mess on previous GM John Muckler. Basically the conclusion is the larder is bare. If the future of the hockey club is in the farm team, then the Senators are still looking down, not up.

The Senators are still struggling a bit with high-priced talent that they can't use. This is the same generalized argument I made when I first proposed trading Dany Heatly. These players -- I am thinking of Kovalev, Spezza, Fisher, Michalek, and yes even his amazingness Daniel Alfredsson -- are assets that we can't leverage properly. As amazing as all these guys can be are can be, the Senators are not in a position to challenge this year.

I know I've been beating the drum about this less this year. That's been a deliberate choice. I've decided that even if Brian Murray doesn't know what he's doing, he's the man in charge and we should let him do his job.

Look at the state of the league right now. It is rare to see repeat contenders. (OK, last year was a bad example.) The consensus is that there are two teams which have to succeed this year if they are going to -- I am thinking of Chicago and San Jose here.

Chicago especially is going to be in a bad way because they have been blessed with three highly talented players all at the same time, all of which will be expecting big bucks next year at contract time. Once they lose some of these guys, and/or have to gut the rest of the team to keep these three guys, they are going to be rebuilding, no question about it.

See also Montreal, which was set up to peak last year for their centennial. This year, where are they? Nowhere. OK Montreal blew up prematurely for reasons nobody really understands, but this team now is going back to basics, back to rebuilding.

This I think is the reality that Senators fans have to face. Unless you can find a lot of guys who will play over their pay grades, or a lot of fresh young (cheap) talent, you won't have a solid chance because there will always some other team which either does have a lot of guys who play over their pay grades or a lot of fresh young (cheap) talent.

Our eyes should be on eventual success, not just passing some arbitrary bar this year. Trading for Kovalchuk now would give us a definite edge while chasing a playoff spot this year. However, it would cost us even more from our already depleted future.

For Those Of You Keeping Track At Home

Milan Michalek is out indefinitely with an "upper body injury".

For those of you who missed the first half of the season and the entire Ottawa media machine, you might not have caught on to the fact that this means Ottawa's entire top line, Michalek-Spezza-Alfredsson, is now out injured.

Since Spezza's injury on 14 December, the team has gone 4-6-2, for 10 points out of 24. Since Alfredsson's injury on 23 December, the team has gone 2-3-2, or 6 points out of 14.

(Since Michalek's injury last night, the team has gone for a ride on an aeroplane, and presumably someone's picked up some frequent flyer points out of that.)

Now some of these losses are attributable to the loss of these key players. But some of them are attributable to the mix of stronger, better rested opponents that the schedule has been producing for the team to face.

Honestly, at the beginning of the season very few people expected the Senators to even be in with a chance at the playoffs; yet here we are. I think that the "success" that the Senators have enjoyed is more attributable to softer, tired opponents playing in the Senators' rink. I don't think that in the long run this team will continue the overall level of results they have achieved thus far.

This season is going to get grim before it is over.

Spezza's Year From Hell Gets Worse

Isn't that great? Jason Spezza out with a knee injury, could be three to six weeks, but it could also be two months. Unfortunately for him, this means no Olympics for him this year -- not that the Olympics were really in the cards the way he was playing. I mean look at Mike Fisher, who looks like he is having a career year, and even he isn't a shoe-in. The commentators last night were discussing his merits as a "specialist" in a checking or fourth line role.

But last night there was ugly all over the place. The Leafs won by virtue of the fact that they were less ugly when it counted. The "tying" no-goal with thirty-odd seconds to go was a fair cop -- Toronto was the better team last night and deserved the win. And really, that's what we need -- a Toronto team that is worth beating. I am tired of kicking puppies.

I'm not going to dump on Elliot -- lazy ass line changes deserve to be punished severely, and last night they were. Similarly Kuba was in the wrong place at the wrong time and deflected the wrong puck the wrong way, and it was Alfredsson's bad position on the play that let Beauchemin get the shot off.

On the good side though the Leafs gave up odd man rushes three times early in the second, and the Senators converted on one of them. And poor coverage of Spezza during the power play gave him the opportunity to get it right, which he did.

But aside from that, the big guns were fairly quiet.

I think that Spezza has been a big factor in creating opportunities for Michalek so far this year, so he and Alfredsson will have to find some chemistry but quick with whomever is cycled up with them.

Say what you want about Spezza's low production this year -- but the team is not improved with him sidelined.

High Pressure

(Sorry, thought I'd pressed "publish" on this earlier.)

Watched the Sens game against Buffalo on Saturday. And that was a nice game to watch. I was worried after the first period, when the Senators appeared to keep Buffalo in their own end for most of the period, only to surrender the first goal of the night.

In the second it all came together much better, with good pressure through the end and no stupid mistakes. This carried through the first eight minutes of the third, after which point it got interesting -- the team sitting back more than a little bit, and Elliot being unable to stop to two quick goals that Buffalo put in. After that it was a race between the Senators love of the penalty box (we shall speak no more of this, thank you Chris Neil) and the Buffalo intensity to try and draw back into the game. At the end, Buffalo was pressing 6-on-4, but was unable to capitalize. Elliot made some scrambly looking saves to preserve the win.

Alfredsson had a stand-up game and was rewarded with two goals and an assist and was present at both ends of the ice. The captain continues to lead by example on the ice. Fisher and Michalek were both threats all night. And Kovalev was only conspicuous by his absence -- oh wait, he really was absent this time.

Spezza took it from Don Cherry at the first intermission. Personally I like this Jason Spezza more than last year's model. Yes, last year had more goals, but this year's is more concerned about making plays and then getting back to help out in his own end. Spezza's stats may end up worse on the point total, but on the whole the team is better off. Now if this year's Spezza can step up the goal scoring while keeping his new found discipline, well that would be a win all around.

LeClaire left after the second after taking a ugly looking stretch to his neck. Hopefully he'll be OK to return soon. (Update: Elliot starts against Washington, which is to be expected; but LeClaire is backing him up and there have not yet been any call-ups which implies LeClaire will be back in action soon.)

While the outcome was a good one, the Senators have to continue to win these kinds games. Buffalo was coming off of a loss the previous night, so they were a tired team playing their backup goalie.

Next up will be a stronger test, but still one the Senators should treat as winable -- Washington gave away the shoot out to Toronto on Saturday, and on Monday will be playing for the third time in four days. Washington should tire if the Senators press enough.

Optimism

Well due to various reasons I only got to watch the first period last night, and in keeping with the "it's still early days" theme, I'm going to be thinking positive today.

I think putting Michalek, Cheechoo, and Spezza together is going to look like a stunningly brilliant move in the long run. Their first game together and not only did they combine for the only goal of the night, I counted three quality chances that this line put together. Once these guys really click, the goals will come.

I think that Alexi Kovalev is going to be another player that other commentators hate but that I really like to watch. Kovalev was magic with the puck several times, carrying the puck deep into the Penguins' zone, or feathering a pass through the sticks of unsuspecting Penguins players right on the tape of a waiting Senators teammate. Oh, and a no-look drop pass to the left of the Penguins goal that a Penguins defender picked up. I think that again, Kovalev and Alfredsson will start to look very good together.

I still don't like the defensive scramble in front of the Ottawa net. It seems far too frantic and too uncoordinated. But LeClaire is there, most of the time. Commentary from last night blames three of the four goals on funny bounces. If we can get some defensive discipline then this team will look a lot better.

Game 1: Ott 2 NY 5

Well, that went a lot better than it could have.

No, really. I liked what I saw. Ottawa stood pretty firm in the opening frame of the game, and the first two goals came from small lapses in discipline which can be fixed with a little work. Ottawa ran up the shot clock pretty well, even if most of those shots never really had a serious chance.

I liked what I saw of the Ranger's powerplay -- which means the fact that they went 0-5 is a huge achievement by the Ottawa penalty-kill. Obviously LeClaire was a huge part of that, but since the power play is a big part of scoring in today's NHL, having a competent PK is a big part of being able to stay in a game.

Spezza and Alfredsson rang up the first goal to bring the Senators back into the game -- somehow the Captain always seems to be in the right place at the right time.

After watching Kovalev go to work for an entire game, I think that his puck-handling is going to infuriate the same people who love to ride Spezza. When it works it is going to be brilliant, but when it doesn't...

So overall, I'm optimistic after having watched all that.

Preseason Jitters

Random, disconnected thoughts about the pre-season:

First, I'm not too excited about the results. With the exception of the second loss to the Panthers, I think the results on the scoreboard have more to do with the preseason rosters being iced against the Senators, and the preseason roster the Senators are icing. So while the win against Montreal was fun, it doesn't mean anything except maybe that Carey Price is still not back on top of his game.

Second. I like the look of Peter Regin. His solid, diciplined play would definitely be an asset on the team. Besides, thanks to his work Mike Fisher now has more goals in this season than he did in all of last season. (I jest. But not by much.) Anything that boosts Fisher's production can only be a good thing.

Third. I would like to see Erik Karlsson sent to Bingo for this year. While he's shown some flashes of skill, I think his game needs another year in the somewhat easier environment of the AHL. Right now the Senators are choking in mediocre blue-liners, and I think we will get a better look at Karlsson's potential either later in the year as an injury-replacement call up, or next year in camp again. The last thing we want to do is try to bring Karlsson along too quickly and ruin him.

Fourth. The top line of Michalek, Spezza and Alfredsson was disturbingly quiet when we've seen them go. While it will be nice to get three lines with scoring potential, the top line has to get it done.

Fifth: I don't buy that Leclaire is all that and a bag of chips. Why? I can't really say, it's just a feeling. Right now I'd take him over Brian Elliot, but I'm a bit worried about the goaltending at this point.

Finally: Thank god we don't have to play the Leafs six million times this pre-season.

Overall, though, as I have said -- nothing to get excited about. We'll have a much better picture as November rolls around.

Nothing Personal, Kid, It's Just... Something

Dany I-don't-want-to-be-a-Senator-anymore Heatley gets invited to the Olympic team, while Jason Spezza doesn't:

Steve Yzerman, executive director of Canada’s men’s hockey team for the 2010 Olympics in Vancouver, said in a conference call that his management team has selected a group they feel will have the “youth, experience, size, speed, skill, grit — all the elements that make up a championship team.”

Spezza was among Canada’s leading scorers at the worlds, but selectors feel the gifted offensive centre is too one-dimensional as a player.

Other-worldly.

If Jason Spezza is described as "one-dimensional", how can Dany Heatley be considered anything else?