Burke Fired -- Instant Reaction

With ten days to go before the season starts:

What's the most insane hockey move you could make today?#MapleLeafs firing of Brian Burke has to at least be top 3.
— David Mackintosh (@xdroop) January 9, 2013

And frankly it continues to get weird, since promoted former-deputy-and-not-temporary GM Dave Nonis is pretty much going to keep doing what Burke was doing.  Which is good from a short-term perspective -- there's no sea change expected nine days before the puck drops on the shortened season and makes it perhaps slightly less insane (say top five instead of top three).

But from a long term perspective it is trouble, because the last four years have not exactly yielded any success beyond periodic beatings of better Senators teams.

I've long wondered why the Leafs were so chronically bad. I didn't think that Burke was the idiot that the last four years have made him out to look like, even though his decisions have been head scratching at times.

But then I don't think like a lot of hockey fans. I don't think that Roberto Luongo would be the solution to the Leaf's goaltending issues because the main problem with the goaltending is the rest of the team playing in front of the goalies. I guess that's a rant for a different blogger.

I'd say that for the Leafs, it isn't possible to make things worse any more -- but I've been proven wrong on that time and again.

Leafership Priorities

Seen on my RSS reader, in an article listing today's Leafs-related link dump:



My reaction is: no, the Leafs are in dire need of players worth leading. Solve that problem first, then worry about "leadership".

And yeah, just kicking the Leafs in a quick one-line post is kinda low, but that's all I have time for today.

Random Kickage

So the league has cancelled the first two weeks of hockey, which includes 6 Ottawa Senators games, and I presume a similar number of Maple Leafs games.  And this got me thinking.

You know that all things being equal, the Maple Leafs have enjoyed some barn-burner starts to the last couple of seasons.  It is clear that the Leafs are traditionally much better at the beginning of the year than at the end of it.  And the lockout could, in fact, work in their favor.  See, all the Leafs need to do is arrange for the second half of the season to be cancelled -- rather than the first half -- and they'll make the playoffs.

Simple, yes?  Don Cherry must be licking his chops.

In other, equally relevant news, the Leafs are still tied for first place in the East.

Learn From The Experts

This is absolutely hysterical:

The team that hasn't made the playoffs since... well let's just check the counter:

...ok let's just say it has been a while and leave it at that.  But they're going to help other coaches select their Tim Hortons' or something!  You could write a whole comedy routine about this: "Yes, Mr. Coach, welcome to the Leafs Coaching Clinic.  First, could you show us how you are doing things so we can see... erm... uh... what to correct?"

The only way this would be more hysterical would be if it was announced just after a coaching change.  (Update: it was, kinda.)

Tune in next week when the Leafs host their clinic for General Managers!

Cool Story, Bro

So unless you've been dead, you've probably both A) have seen this and B) know the back-story behind it:

Basically Brian Burke used the above quote to justify not selling* the Maple Leaf's future in a bid to buy additional short-term talent in order to make the playoffs in the East this year.  And as we all know, the 8th seeded Los Angeles Kings are now Your Stanley Cup Champions For 2012.

And probably for the next three years as the Maple Leafs continue their graceful slide in irrelevance, this image will be dragged out as a rebuttal to any hint of patience or conservative trading.

What those in Toronto tend to overlook are the differences between the 2011-2012 Kings and the 2011-2012 Maple Leafs.

One of these teams has a recent track record of success in the regular season.  One of these teams has a roster which had people complaining all year that they were underachieving.  And one of these teams had the fundamentals in place so that it could all come together with a bit of luck to win it all.

The Leafs are not the one team.  The Leaf's "success" in the regular season was A) a symptom of other teams not taking them seriously; and B) over in February.  Not even firing their coach could turn the team around from its nose-dive.  Their success was due to hard work and luck, but not due to any qualities one could point to as them actually being an underachieving hockey team.  No, it was pretty obvious that they were overachievers.  And while it isn't impossible that they might have continued to overachieve, they would have required sharply more luck than... well... they'd need a lot.

If you have an underachieving team that has responded positively to a coaching change, then trading away some future for the present might make sense.  But the Leafs are, let's be honest here, a couple of years away from being any kind of serious contender -- longer if Mr. Burke is shown the door over the next six months, which isn't an impossibility itself.

But to claim that all you need to do is get in -- and then hope for luck -- is stupid.

Get in with a legitimate chance to win.  Don't lunge and then hope.

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* = what little was left of

Happy No Playoffs, Toronto

So just for a giggle, I googled "Truculence".  The Leafs showed up in item 7, a reference to Coach Carlyle asking for and receiving a particular call-up.

The fact that the Leafs show up 7th in this list is funny to me because today they're 14th in the east and have been mathematically eliminated from post-season play.

Sure, they've beat the Senators several times this year, but a team in year four of a rebuild needs to be beating a team in a 1st-year rebuild more reliably.  Heck, they need to be beating a whole lot of other teams more reliably.

Something for Leafs fans to be chewing on this off season* is that if Burke is going to be let go, it has to happen now so that a replacement has a chance to get organized for the upcoming July 1st free agency and the entry-draft later in the summer, as well as seeing about a replacement head coach.  The longer Burke is left in place, the harder it will be for any replacement -- forget a good replacement -- to make a positive impact on next year's fortunes.

But anyways -- Go Sens go!

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* == which let's be honest started mid-February

There Are Greeks In Toronto?

Varada at Welcome To Your Karlsson Years writes at length at the depths of the greek tragedy unfolding in Toronto. Mandatory reading.

Brian Burke Is Pretty Much Finished

By firing Ron Wilson tonight, Brian Burke has put his credibility with the Toronto Maple Leafs firmly behind him.

Now by all means, Wilson had to go. The problem was he probably had to go at the end of last season when the Leafs didn't make the playoffs -- again. The problem was Wilson certainly didn't deserve a contract extension scant weeks ahead of his firing. The problem was that the players had probably tuned him out and had just started waiting for the inevitable swing of the axe.

However, you really can't lay the blame for the Leaf's history at Wilson's feet. It would be nice for Leafs fans if you could* but the problem with the team is the on-ice personnel, and the buck for those decisions stop in the GM's office.

Frankly the Leaf's recent success -- that is, the success that immediately predated the recent lack of success -- was probably due to the same factors that Ottawa profited from earlier this season. Teams saw the Leafs as easy pickings, only to discover that in the NHL even the easy-pickings teams can beat you if you don't take them seriously. Once the rest of the league got the message that hey, Toronto needed to be taken seriously, bam, we return to regularly scheduled programming.

I read something a few years ago that I liked. It said: deficiencies for special teams' play are the fault of the coach, because it is the coach's systems which either work or don't, his messages which gets through or doesn't, his ability to get buy-in which works or doesn't. But for five on five hockey: the credit or blame for how the team does belongs to the GM. That's his group of people that he's assembled. And if it works, he's a genius, and if it doesn't, he's a goat.

Burke's fingerprints are pretty much all over the Leafs. The fact that they are -- again -- probably going to miss the playoffs is now his fault, and unless something happens soon, Burke's departure is the next change that needs to be made.

He's tried building through the draft. Actually no he didn't, he traded away two first round picks to Boston for a player who, while being a very good player, can't carry the entire team on his back. Frankly he should have waited two years to make that kind of trade, giving him assets to build from within before trading away his immediate future in pursuit of immediate, improbable, success.

He's tried trading away a quarter of his team to the Calgary Flames.

He's tried shaming his players through the media.

He couldn't find something to do before the trade deadline. Now that might be a very good thing, we have no idea who was demanding how much for what, and frankly A) there's no point having a fire sale and B) there really wasn't much to sell.

Burke's 2011-2012 plan has basically boiled down to then miracle happens.

Firing Wilson now is a tacit admission of that fact.

And really, Leafs fans better hope he doesn't get one.

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*= and I'm pretty sure tomorrow I'll wake up to a RSS reader full of articles doing precisely that

Ladies, Gentlemen, and Leafs Fans...

Your most over-rated NHL player is: Mr Dion Phaneuf. Apparently as voted by his peers.

Man, that photo is priceless. I can't get enough of it.

The list is interesting, Dany Heatley is #5 (no argument here) and Kolvalchuk is #6.

Also interesting is the list of under-rated players, former Senator Chris Kelly is number 5 on that list.

(Title shamelessly ripped from The Battle Of Ontario.)

Maybe I do care

So I says to Jenn: Look, I don't really care about hockey right now. I've watched none of the pre-season games, I'm not following training camp, I have no idea who's up or cut from the roster, I don't know what the schedule is, I just don't care.

And Jenn says: Quick, which is worse, losing a limb or the leafs winning the Stanley Cup?

And I replied: which limb?

As Long As There's A Process

So there is an immediate upside to Anderson: he can win err not lose a shootout.

<yay>

We are now awaiting this singular performance to be the cornerstone of Mr. Anderson being hailed "the next franchise goalie" by the masses, an event which will be quickly followed up by those same masses trying to run him out of town after two consecutive losses.

Perhaps I Spoke Too Soon

I think I could stand to see a little bit of Toronto getting curb-stomped.

Leafs Lose, All Is Right With The World

You know what I thought the highlight of Saturday night was? In the second. The hometown Leafs fans started a "Go Leafs Go" chant -- and it got drowned out by a "Go Sens Go" chant.

The other random thought I had was that the hometown Leafs fans really gave the team that home-style welcome, right down to booing them in the third.

Classy.

Overall I thought that Ottawa deserved to win. Maybe Toronto didn't deserve to get shut out, but more than a goal would have been flattering to both the Leaf effort and discipline. Both Khadri and Kessel whiffed on open net opportunities, but that's what happens to most players most of the time.

For once it wasn't Ottawa making stupid defensive lapses. For once it wasn't Ottawa making turnovers on botched outlet passes. For once it wasn't the LeClaire facing odd-man rushes.

Fisher was on, collecting two pretty goals, an assist on Kovalev's marker, plus a post.

It wasn't the prettiest game, but at least the hometown Leafs fans were shut up a bit, and that's never a bad thing.

Refs Try To Give Toronto A Win, Leafs Can't Take It

I'm still angry about Tuesday night.

Tuesday I watched most of the game between the Leafs and the Senators. Overall I thought the Leafs skated better and and made the Senators run around in their own end, but stand-up play from Elliot and no small amount of bad luck on the Leaf's part meant that the Senators ended up winning.

But what has me angry is the just plain flat out BAD officiating that happened in that game:

• Fisher wasn't hooked. Officials have let FAR worse go FAR more regularly, and to suddenly call something like that is to raise the level of inconsistency.
• Both refs were far more interested in watching Phaneuf get up-ended on his ass than watching the goddamn puck. So even though the puck went under Kovalev, who went in the net, which is where the officials picked the puck up from after Phaneuf was helped off the ice play -- no call. Since there was no call on the ice, there was no call to overturn, and the cameras have not yet been fitted to Kovalev's ass, so -- no goal. WATCH THE GODDAMN PUCK, ITS YOUR JOB.
• The flurry of penalties at the end was more than a little ridiculous, considering worse had been ignored EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.
• That TOTALLY bogus "delay of game" penalty issued to Hale even though we could hear the puck HIT THE GLASS on the way out of the ice surface.

It felt by the end that the officials were trying very hard to give Toronto the win, but somehow the Leafs couldn't quite seal the deal.

That's not to say that the Leafs fans had nothing to complain about with regards to the reffing:

Similar slashes to the one called on Grabovski were let go, a trip on Beauchemin prior to Orr's dumb penalty was missed, and Mike Fisher interfering with Jean-Sebastien Giguere's right leg was not seen by any refs.

PPP (the author) is far more charitable to the officials that I am.

And this, I think, is what gets me. This kind of bad officiating is so run-of-the-mill that there is no serious mention of it. It is accepted that over the long haul, sometimes the refs will work for you and sometimes they will work against you and that's just considered part of the game.

Now I'm sure that because this is a fast-paced, high-pressure game where the players will push every boundary just a little bit further than they can that the refs are under enormous pressure to make split-second judgments. To get it right every time would be impossible. However I don't think they were even close on Tuesday night.

Meta Cup Discussion

The meta-discussion surrounding Chicago's Stanley Cup win last night has been fascinating. Apparently when Chicago won, it meant that three teams had gone, what, 43 years without a Cup win.

Those teams? Los Angeles and St. Louis, who were expansion teams in '67. And the third?

Hmmm... 1967 rings a bell for some reason. Yep that's right -- the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Apparently the Maple Leafs now co-own the longest Cup-free drought.

Why is this fascinating? I mean, besides Maple Leafs fans being miserable, a condition they are well used to by now?

It is fascinating because the vast majority of "coverage" of this issue has been Maple Leafs bloggers and media complaining about how unfair it is that everyone is pointing it out.

5 Things To Be Happy About From 2009-2010

Well summer has come to Ottawa. The weather is nice and my kids have a brand new play structure in the back yard to play on. Sure, it might be nicer to be continuing down the playoffs towards a Stanley Cup, but really I don't mind so much. In any case, here's my list of things to be happy about from this just finished season.

Playoffs

This team wasn't supposed to make the playoffs at all, or at the most, scrabble in at the tail end of the position 6-7-8 logjam of mediocrity that the East features so much of. Instead, we finished 5th, and made the defending Stanley Cup champions earn their round 1 victory.

As for the round 1 itself, considering that we were running without minute-munching defenseman Kuba, defense-coverage-magnet Kovalev, or either of the "parts" we got in exchange for Heatley -- the fact that we still made Pittsburgh earn their round 1 victory is an achievement in itself. And standing tall, fighting through to a triple-overtime win in game 5 to bring the series back home for game 6, granting team owner Melnyk an unexpected playoff gate -- I think that put this all together and this year was a definite success.

Secondary Scoring

...as in, we had plenty this year.

This year the team had credible threats on all four lines most of the year. Instead of past years where the top line had to do it all, we got a good year from Fisher, quality production from Michalek, and a streaky set of performances from Kovalev.

And I forget how many times the grinder line of Neil-Kelly-Rutuu came up with a big goal to either take the game or to swing the momentum back in Ottawa's favor.

Having such productive lines gave opposing coaches fits, as they'd have to pick which lines to cover closely and which to risk against.

Jason Spezza's New-Found Defensive Discipline

Spezza has shown more willingness to get back after the opposition gets going. He's more willing to get in and grind in his own zone, rather than just floating around waiting for the outlet pass to happen (since lets face it we pay Kovalev a lot of money to do that). I like this new Spezza, and I hope that it continues.

Overall it would be nice if there was more in terms of point production, but lets face it we as fans will always say that. Rumor is that the no-trade clause kicks in this July 1st, and I sincerely hope he isn't traded ahead of that.

Erik Karlsson

At the beginning of the year I said I would like to see him sent down to Bingo in order to get his game together. Turns out that the braintrust at the team came to the same conclusion, and down he went, where he played very good hockey, ending up running the power play down there. Having proved he had the basic hockey skills to do the job, the time came for him to get his NHL-level experience and make his NHL-level rookie mistakes.

Which he did, costing the team several goals at times; but his offensive senses are wonderful, and once he has settled in through the next year or two we can hope that he can develop into something special.

Daniel Alfredsson

What more can be said of Alfredsson that hasn't already been said before? He played his 1000th game as an Ottawa Senator. He brought his A-game every night, playing at both ends. He played top line or shut down. He ran the power play and penalty kill special teams. He played hurt, he played hard, he played with heart.

He is without a doubt the heart and soul of this team.

The one thing I want to mention specifically is his comments after he was injured in Pittsburgh earlier in the year. While the commentators were on the TV baying for blood (followed by much of the blog-o-sphere the next time the two teams met), Alfredsson himself said that the play was a clean, legal hit and it was his own fault for putting himself in a vulnerable position. Now that's class.

Unfortunately the clock is running down on Alfredsson. We say this every year, but it is a fact of life that years of playing hockey will eventually catch up with him and he will have to stop. No one, not even Alfredsson, can continue to do this forever. We can only hope that before that happens the team can get him the Stanley Cup ring he so richly deserves. (And hey, it'd be nice for the rest of us to have the Stanley Cup here in Ottawa.)

Bonus: The Continuing Disaster That Is The Toronto Maple Leafs

The Leafs continue to suck, and that's never a bad thing. What's so bewildering is that given the brain trust in charge of them, why are they so bad? It boggles the mind.

I would still like to see the Leafs and the Senators fighting for top spot in the conference -- or even the Leafs-Senators games being competitive affairs -- but in the absence of that I'll settle for the status quo.

Toronto As A Sports Town

Here's another article crapping on Toronto sports fans: When it comes to sports, Toronto is a city of losers

I agree with the notion that because the fans continue to come out to see the games, win or (as seems more likely) lose, the organizations behind the teams has no financial incentive to improve the on-field product. However, the problem isn't so much the individual fan, but the fact that there are so many of them that demand for the product far exceeds the organizations' abilities to deliver.

My favorite example of this is the Maple Leafs. The problem is that the fan-base in Southern Ontario is so wide that even if every fan who attended a game this year totally boycotted the team next year, the arena would probably still sell out.

Maple Leaf Sports Entertainment (MLSE) has a monopoly, in that they are the only ones who can supply regular access to games played by the Maple Leafs. Such is the demand that MLSE can demand high prices for tickets to those games; the surrounding market provides enough rich people who want to see the games that these games will frequently (usually?) sell out.

So consider what happens if by some miracle the Leafs are built into a contending team. How does this affect the box office? Since the box office sells out already, it doesn't. The fact that a winning team would increase the desirability of a Maple Leafs ticket means MLSE could conceivably raise prices. However the fact that there is a secondary market for Leafs tickets shows that MLSE is already leaving some money on the table.

The combined Southern Ontario market in general, and the Metro Toronto market in particular, is so big that any organization with even a moderate market penetration will find enough fans with enough money to keep them in business.

In a smaller market, say for example Ottawa, a losing team does become economically unviable. This will eventually run the ownership group out of money, resulting in a change of ownership, management, and eventually -- should the on-field product not improve -- venue. We saw it with the CFL several times, and minor league baseball has left Ottawa twice already too.

But Toronto's sports enterprises have such a rich market in potential fanbase that it is unlikely that you could measure a drop in fan support at the box office. As such, while the organizations want to improve for pride reasons, there isn't any financial mechanism to sweep out the ownership and management which has thus far failed to deliver.

Humour

Two notes from the weekend.

First, how about this for a trade rumor:

LeClaire for Price. Two goalies who are not as bad as the teams in front of them made them look, who are both looking for fresh starts.

Second, in a discussion of this year's season just done:

I be Dany Heatley is glad he didn't go to Edmonton last summer. He'd be a Leaf now!

Back To Reality

Well, that was awful, wasn't it? Hopefully this kick in the nuts will clear the dreams of Stanley Cup glory from anyone's eyes. It's over, ok? Just... over.

What is there to say? One of the worst teams in hockey comes to town against allegedly one of the better ones and we can't beat them. Bluntly the Leafs were just plain better, and the bounces didn't go Ottawa's way. Again. Several good chances; several failures to seal the deal.

At least Carkner kept his brains enough to avoid getting pounded again. I don't understand why he does it -- Ottawa loses every time.

And it is pathetic that the rink sounded more like Maple Leaf Gardens than the home of the Ottawa Senators. Not that the Senators did much worth cheering for tonight, but the crowd was definitely behind Toronto.

Healthy Leafs Barely Beat Sick Senators

...or something. I didn't watch -- I was sick.

But really, the first two games back from the Olympic break have had the terrible dialed up to "10" here. I was watching the New York game, and the color guy was talking about the New York coach's decision to call a time out after an icing call to rest his guys... he says: "this is a smart decision, he knows this game could break out either way any time now."

And I said, are you and I watching the same game? Yes, the Senators are pressing, but it is a disorganized pressure -- the Rangers are playing smart, simple, steady hockey in their end. And when the pressure starts to go the other way, the Rangers are still playing smart, steady hockey, while the Senators are running around in their own end. And the Rangers then get rewarded with what, two or three quick goals?

I watched LeClaire's return two nights later, all seven minutes of it before he got the hook. I didn't blame LeClaire on either of those goals, they were clearly the fault of the guys ahead of him on the ice. Unfortunately for LeClaire, Clouston can't hook the rest of the team... Elliot played well in relief, but showed what kind of night it was when he left his net for the sixth attacker late in the third and the empty net goal goes in before Elliot even gets off the ice. (Was Karlsson laughing or crying at that?) Add in both Alfredsson and Spezza being unable to convert on a break, and it just wasn't the Senators' night.

I still can't believe that Murray thinks this team is set for a deep playoff run.