Amnesty Targets History

So I lost the good fight on amnesty clauses -- I guess it was too attractive a dumb idea to not get tapped. Teams will get two amnesty buyouts each -- one this year and one next.

Which brings us to this article listing potential amnesty targets for each team.

What gets me is that if you read down the list, it reads like a whos-who of Ottawa Senators history:

• Marian Hossa in Chicago
• Anton Volchenkov in New Jersey
• Alexi Yashin in Brooklyn New York
• Wade Reddin in the other New York
• Dany Heatley in Minnesota
• Martin Havlat in San Jose

I suspect if you look at it, you'll see more Senators alumni on that list than any other team.

Man, those glory days were something, eh?

And really, who on today's roster is going to attract the same kind of reminiscing?  Spezza?  Yes.  Karlsson?  Absolutely.  Alfredsson?  Without a doubt.  And after that?... does anyone seriously think we are going to be remembering the glory days of Colin Greening?

It was fun while it lasted.  Now we're just trying to not be Toronto.

Ladies, Gentlemen, and Leafs Fans...

Your most over-rated NHL player is: Mr Dion Phaneuf. Apparently as voted by his peers.

Man, that photo is priceless. I can't get enough of it.

The list is interesting, Dany Heatley is #5 (no argument here) and Kolvalchuk is #6.

Also interesting is the list of under-rated players, former Senator Chris Kelly is number 5 on that list.

(Title shamelessly ripped from The Battle Of Ontario.)

Crazy

Want a crazy thought? Dany Heatley did the Senators a favor by screwing them on his way out of town.

Now while you are casting around for your torches and pitchforks, hear me out.

Put aside your Senators-red colored glasses and take a look at this year's team. I mean, really look at them. Look at the effort put in on the ice on most nights.

Last night they fired more shots at Niemi than were directed back at LeClair. Niemi may be commonly considered one of the more porous goalies on the circuit this year, but for all this artillery... nothing goes in.

Monday they played host to Edmonton, and got owned. The worst team in the west came to visit and beat them. The only goal that the Senators could muster would be a single fluky marker that bounces off of Foligno's stick then off an Oiler skate and in.

All those other efforts?

Nothing.

And this was Darth Gerber they were shelling, allegedly the single handed cause of Ottawa's now legendary collapse in 2008. A man shielded by the worst defense corps in the west. Being attacked by a team who's owner believes are destined for the finals; a team which most fans think will get to the playoffs, even if not very far.

And? At risk of repeating myself:

Nothing.

So. Let's review. This year we have:

• no primary scoring;
• no defensive discipline; and
• at least one goalie (you pick) playing over his head without any support from the guys ahead of them.

Gut check time, folks:

How much better would this be if Heatley was still here?

It would be better, sure. But how much better? Is Dany Heatley that god among men who can make the difference between a trip to the finals, and... well, this?

Well then San Jose is sure getting screwed, aren't they?

When Heatley devalued himself so that Brian Murray was forced to take a salary dump in the form of Cheechoo just for the privilege of handing over a multi-time 50-goal-scorer, he not only deprived the Senators of his services, but weakened them further by tying up resources that would prevent the Senators from even contemplating a reasonable effort at replacing even a part of it.

(No disrespect to Michalek, but he's no Dany Heatley.)

Leading us more or less inevitably to where we are today.

The Ottawa Senators are going to have to take a long, hard look in the roster. The fact of the matter is that as the team is currently on average the oldest on the ice, they will not be getting, on average, better.

While we locked up the core of the team that got us to the playoffs, we discarded for varying reasons some of the wildcards that were the difference between trying and succeeding. And it was that whole team, together, all playing well, many playing above their heads, that got to the final in 2007.

By trying to hold on to that history, hold on to the memory that we came so close to holding that parade, we have let the possibility of that dream coming true in the near future slip through our fingers.

The time has passed on tweaking this team.

The time has come, frankly, to rebuild this team.

I'd rather wander the wilderness of no-playoffs for a couple of years knowing that we were in the process of building a youth movement that could actually carry us somewhere. It would be far better to do that than to carry on as we are, staggering around in the fringes of the wilderness, hoping against hope that some miracle tweak will make everything better.

I think that Dany Heatley got us to this point sooner than we would have otherwise.

Sorry, guys.

Bring on the torches and pitchforks.

Humour

Two notes from the weekend.

First, how about this for a trade rumor:

LeClaire for Price. Two goalies who are not as bad as the teams in front of them made them look, who are both looking for fresh starts.

Second, in a discussion of this year's season just done:

I be Dany Heatley is glad he didn't go to Edmonton last summer. He'd be a Leaf now!

Gameday Prediction: Senators at San Jose

My quick prediction: Sharks win in regulation. Final 3-1 or 4-2.

Why?

• The Sharks are the best team in the league. Ottawa is not. Edge: Sharks.
• The Sharks are playing at home, Ottawa is on the second game of a road trip and is out of their timezone. Edge: Sharks.
• The Sharks have Dany Heatley. Ottawa has Brian Elliot, who is a fine backup goalie, but come on, he's a backup. Heatley vs LeClaire might have been interesting. Heatley vs Elliot is a bit of a foregone conclusion. Edge: Sharks.

Hopefully there will be a highlight reel tomorrow morning.

Oh, and I for one don't want to see some juvenile "revenge" dished out on Heatly. He left, let's move on and play some hockey.

Heatley Drama Finally Over

I would have posted about this sooner, but really, you don't talk hockey when Ferraris are racing at Monza.

So: Heatly to the San Jose Sharks, in exchange for a couple of top-six forwards.

In Jonathan Cheechoo, the Senators seem to have picked up another Mike Fisher -- a second- or third- line player who is not playing to his salary. Michalek seems to be considered a potential elite player in need of some development time.

On a strictly parts-for-parts perspective, I like this deal. Yes, Heatly scored more points than Cheechoo and Michalek combined last year. However, if both these players pan out we should end up with more of a scoring threat than just one top line. If not, then we've got more Mike Fisher.

But overall I liked the Edmonton deal more, because it included a defense man. Maybe not an elite "puck-moving" defense man, but still one was included.

Someone pointed out last night that a potential fourth line of Kelly, Neil, and Rutuu for the Senators would result in the highest-paid fourth line for the year. Now while that's not a bad thing (spreading your cap space around), it's only OK if you are getting value for money. Kelly, I don't think is playing to his salary. Neil and Rutuu, well I don't understand that part of the game.

I still think that defense is the biggest question mark for the season going forward. If we get some heroes this year, and if Leclare turns out to be the "franchise goalie" that we've been hunting for... this could work.

Count me as cautiously optimistic, and more than a little relieved that we can stop talking about this.

As for Heatley -- well I've long been on the record as wanting to move him. I'd prefer a little more upside to the trade, but at this point getting him out of Ottawa was the most important thing, and I think Murray did the best he could under the circumstances.

Your Dressing Room Forcast: Chilly

Senator's Captain Daniel Alfredsson hints that Dany Heatly may not be entirely welcome:

The best resolution to the Dany Heatley saga would be to see the disgruntled left wing traded before the start of training camp on Sept. 12, captain Daniel Alfredsson said on Friday.

Honestly this surprises me more than a little bit. The latest smoke signals suggest that Murray is about to give up on the idea of trying to trade Heatley and resign himself to sticking him back in the team come training camp.

All signs today point to Heatley reporting to training camp.

Given that, you would expect the on-ice leader to be making supportive noises, saying things like "we'll welcome him and his work ethic back on the team", "make the best of a difficult situation", positive things like that.

This is a signal to Murray that a dressing room under Alfredsson's leadership might not welcome Heatley back with open arms.

This never was the best way to be looking at starting a season, and this only makes things worse.

Oops

Over the last week or so, I have wondered if media types ever get tired of getting what they wanted.

All summer long the media has been salivating over the prospect of an actual media event with Dany Heatley. Without real, hard news to go on, the media has enjoyed the opportunity to speculate as to Heatley's real or imagined complaints, as well as to drag what is left of his character through the mud. The resulting column inches have ranged from insightful analysis through studied indifference and ending at borderline-libelous vitriol.

But last week, Heatley ran out of time to hide and popped up at a media event just before the Olympic team orientation camp.

At which he said precisely nothing new.

This led to another brief round of analysis touting how selfish and unrealistic Heatley's views on his role in the team really is. But since then, since Heatley has continued to say precisely nothing new, the story has almost totally run out of air.

Which I suppose is a 20-20-hindsight lesson for the Heatley camp. If he'd had this media event in June when the story broke, it would have been all over by Canada Day. Well until his refusal to go to Edmonton breathed new life into it, but even that would have lasted less than a week.

In the absence of facts, the media is free to churn itself into a frenzy over theories, rumors, and speculation. Throwing facts on the fire will result in a brief burst of coverage, but after that it will fizzle out for the most part.

Now the collective media has a problem: how to continue to breathe life into this story now that speculation is off the table.

Personally my view hasn't changed -- I have been a proponent of trading Heatley for hockey reasons since last season. I still think that Heatley could be traded for the proverbial bag-o-pucks, just because $7 million in cap space can buy a lot of second-line talent in today's league; any value above that, assuming it is real value and not just an assortment of random parts, would be a bonus.

But what is probably going to happen is that Heatley will still be an Ottawa Senator in the fall. He'll get roundly booed the first few games, but his trick of putting the puck in the net will win back the fans. The result will be that the fanbase will be once again firmly behind him and will feel betrayed by the Senators organization when the inevitable trade happens around Christmas.

All of which will probably generate more column inches all over the place, here included. But only on matters which are truly speculative.

Alfredsson on Heatley

This has probably been quoted to death already, but here's what the captain thinks:

“It’s so surprising. I thought we were a team that had kind of turned things around and were going in the right direction. We underachieved all year...and we could see a lot of positive signs going forward — maybe try and reach the playoffs next season and go far in the playoffs. Dany, obviously, was a huge part of our success before and I thought would be going foward as well.”

At least he found different words to describe how shocked and disappointed he was. It was kind of sad when Fisher, Neil, Murray and Melnyk all used more or less the same words when asked by the media. Sure, you expect a certain lack of imagination from Fisher and Neil, but Melnyk I'd expect to be a little more eloquent.

I think of all the parties involved, Alfredsson is showing the best mindset possible -- he is looking towards having Heatley in the dressing room this fall and is trying to make sure that the room will be as friendly as possible.

No word on the wires regarding Heatley going to Edmonton today, so I wonder if that is really dead. More likely it is management on both sides trying to play games with each other.

I still think the most likely scenario is that Heatley joins the team, does really well, and is traded by Christmas. While the team offensively looks great with Heatley, Kovalev, Spezza and Alfredsson, the fact is that defensively the team will still be weak. I'd look for Heatley to go to another contending team, probably in exchange for some defense.

Good News, Everyone!

The new guy apparently doesn't read the papers:

Kovalev says Stanley Cup within reach

[...]“Ottawa is a pretty good team that has a chance to win the Stanley Cup,” the flashy Russian star said in a conference call from Russia Tuesday, when asked about why he chose to sign a two-year, $10 million U.S. deal here on Monday.[...]

Make no mistake, if Kovalev has his game on, he could be a producer which would fill the hole Heatley leaves if when he leaves. But while many are still drooling over the prospect of a top-four instead of a top-three this year (assuming Heatley stays), I'm with those who are a bit worried about how we are going to pay for it all... especially since there is still a lack of top-tier defense on the team.

Trivially Obvious

James Gordon wonders:

Can someone tell me how Heatley can ever come back and play here if a trade doesn't materialize?

My answer:

Oh, that's almost trivially easy: put the puck in the net a dozen times in the first dozen games, including one OT winner against Toronto. If he does that, all sins will be forgiven. At least they will at the stadium, even if the media will enjoy grinding their axes longer than that.

If anything, the media will enjoy this kind of situation -- having a hero they can tear down, so that they can build him up again, giving them the opportunity to tear him down again.

The problem is that Ottawa fans are fickle. (Or at least, the media and blog-o-sphere is.) So any excuse to pile on, and people will pile on. See for example practically any thread about Jason Spezza. However, the good news is that Ottawa fans are fickle -- should Heatley start producing, and winning, and the fans will love him again. All of which will make the sense of betrayal even sweeter when the inevitable trade gets arranged around Christmas.

That's Ottawa for you. We can't do hockey, but by god we can do dramah.

Nothing Personal, Kid, It's Just... Something

Dany I-don't-want-to-be-a-Senator-anymore Heatley gets invited to the Olympic team, while Jason Spezza doesn't:

Steve Yzerman, executive director of Canada’s men’s hockey team for the 2010 Olympics in Vancouver, said in a conference call that his management team has selected a group they feel will have the “youth, experience, size, speed, skill, grit — all the elements that make up a championship team.”

Spezza was among Canada’s leading scorers at the worlds, but selectors feel the gifted offensive centre is too one-dimensional as a player.

Other-worldly.

If Jason Spezza is described as "one-dimensional", how can Dany Heatley be considered anything else?

Parts For Heatley

So Edmonton's proposed value of an unhappy, 50-goal scorer is a overpaid, underperforming second liner, a young player who might turn into a decent third liner, and a fragile, young defenceman.

My first thought on scanning Penner's stats was "wait a minute, we already have Mike Fisher!"

Throw in not having to pay Dany Heatley any more, and it's got nothing but upside(*).

(*) It's Canada Day. Harsh reality can come back tomorrow.

Irony is sideways

The 6th Sens on Diminished Returns:

The fact that no one in the League is willing to pony up for the third most productive player in the last three years isn't a reflection that he's the shittiest 50 goal scorer out there, it's a reflection of how highly the Sens organization thinks of him.

Nice.

Thing is, that $4M payout on July 1st is a sticking point; teams don't want to deal and then pay, especially if they can get someone else to pay for them. Problem is, Heatley's value goes up after that payout -- while anyone retaining his services from September would still feel the cap hit, that's $4M in real money that they don't have to pay. So Heatley's asking price is only going to go up after July 1st.

My feeling is that we're going to be stuck with Heatley for the first two or three months of the season. THere will then be a deal to see him gone by Christmas. Unfortunately he'll be with the team long enough to be blamed for the inevitable low level of performance this year.

...or maybe that's a good thing. If we can scapegoat him, maybe the boo-birds will lay off of the rest of the team.

All things being equal, I'd like to see him gone so we can start building for the future, rather than continuing to drag along in the awful present.

Free-Floating Non-Specific Hostility

At this point I'm so sick of Dany Heatley that I'd just about trade him to anyone in exchange for not having to pay his sorry ass for the next five years.

OK, maybe that was kinda specific. Or maybe I'm just tired of laughing because its true:

Ottawa Senators: Uhhh.. wow this is tough. [...] I dunno. Being a Senators fan might be the worst gig in the NHL right now. Worse than the equipment manager that has to wash Zach Stortini's underwear.

Oh Dany Boy, The Pipes, The Pipes are callinnnn...

So. The Heater wants out.

Pardon me if I don't think this is the end of the world; in fact, I've said before that trading Heatley was the thing to do.

I think many of the Senators woes can be traced back to their cup run. The problem wasn't the success, the problem is that too many players got rewarded for the success. With Spezza, Alfredsson, and Heatley all got big-money contracts. The problem is that tying up money in the front line reduced its availability everywhere else. This means that you can't afford a sold second or third line, and instead have to fill out the roster with cheap more affordable third- and fourth-liners.

Oh, and Mike Fisher. Who is undoubtedly either an overpaid third/fourth liner, or a waaaay underperforming second-liner. But I digress.

While I am not sad to see him go, it does make me sad to see some of the venom being spewed by the blogging community. Heatly is being treated as a major traitor, one who should be tarred and feathered before being run over with several trucks. Some of the commentary is downright evil.

The thing is, I'm almost more on their side than on the keep-Heatly side. I've always thought he was a one-trick pony -- mind you, it is one hell of a trick. I've always thought his character was lacking after he drove his high-performance sports car (I'm going to say Ferrari because it's a cliche) into a tree, killing a team mate. Oh, and he had been drinking at the time. Oh, and all he got was community service.

If you or I had fueled ourselves with alcohol and driven a Ferrari into a tree, killing someone, you can be sure we'd get a little more than community fucking service. Well, even after adjusting for the fact that we'd be in for Grand Theft Auto too, as it's the only way I'll ever get behind the wheel of a Ferrari. But anyways.

It is totally undeniable, though, that Ottawa got the better part of that trade. The boy can play the game, and the on-ice results are really all that matters. (Thus, community service.) We can be thankful for the goals he's scored and the pizza we've eaten thanks to his efforts. Heatly is a tremendous asset who will continue to produce wherever he lands and I'm sure he'll make some GM very happy.

Still, at $7.5 mil per, he's over priced and taking up cap space that could be better used.

Hopefully this will get the boo-birds off of Jason Spezza's back for ten minutes.

"Trade Heatley" Bandwagon Doubles In Size

The 6th Sens floats a Trade Heatley trial balloon, one better argued than I did a month ago.

In the same post, he also talks about the Senators' recent run as being very admirable:

[...] I'll use this opportunity to say that I was impressed with the team's recent run because I think that they're a very average team. They're neither elite nor bad and I'm concerned that they're destined to nothing more than average for the next couple of seasons.

I think he's right.

One of the problems that everyone in the league is facing these days is how the salary cap is affecting a GM's ability to make changes and plan for the future. Where once a GM could spend his way out of a hole, they now appear to be stuck with the beds they make for themselves, and it will probably take a few years for the league in general to figure out a way to make a good-looking and functional bed to lie in while still leaving some room to maneuver. Personally I don't know what this solution will look like, but there has to be an answer somewhere.

While I am pleased, in a short-term way, with what Murray did this year up to the trade deadline, I'm still not sure that he and Melnyk really have a plan to improve this team in the next few years. I fear that we'll be battling the Maple Leafs for the title of Best Ontario Team Not In The Playoffs for some time to come.

Retire The Futility Meter; Trade Heatley

Word tricking out from the Senators through TSN.ca amongst other places is that Brian Murray is making statements indicating the Senators will be sellers rather than buyers as the trade deadline approaches.

I'm going to be incredibly generous and interpret this as meaning that the Senators have seen the light. Therefore no point in continuing to beat a dead horse with the Futility Meter if management's view is now where it should be, which is on next year and beyond.

Murray's list of untouchables is pretty short:

Murray said he won't be asking captain Daniel Alfredsson, defenceman Chris Phillips, sniper Dany Heatley or two-way centre Mike Fisher to waive their no trade clauses.

The notable absence on this list is Jason Spezza, who's no-trade-clause doesn't kick in until July.

I'm not really sure what I think about that. On the one hand, Dany Heatley is a goal scorer. He has a rocket shot and knows how to use it. On the other hand, Heatley's production rate is very low unless he is matched with a quality play-maker; in that, Heatley definitely relies on Spezza's quality of play. When Spezza is on, Heatley can finish; when he's off, Heatley is just another guy with one trick that he can't use to best effect.

Of the two players, I'd rather let Heatley go if forced to choose between the two (or perhaps more accurately, I'd prefer Spezza stay). I know this isn't what your average pundit thinks, but hear me out. Heatley is a finisher, yes. The two problems are that (A) he is an expensive finisher that is only functional if (B) the rest of the team -- from mythical puck-moving-defense through playmaking center -- is firing on all cylinders. Right now it is clear that the Senators are not. Heatley is an asset the team can't afford and can't effectively use.

Spezza's value is in the chances that he takes in trying to create plays. Yes, pundits love to hate those no-look drop-pass turnovers that create odd-man rushes; but when they work, they work beautifully. Spezza is the man who can create the chances.

Besides, we've seen Heatley at work on lines without Spezza, and it hasn't been productive.

Without Heatley on the payroll, the Senators would have more money to look for that combination of assets, that mythical puck-moving-defense as well as more secondary scoring. I think the last two years have shown us that maybe putting all your scoring eggs into one line makes that scoring very vulnerable to being shut down. It may make more sense to have three lines of guys who are "secondary" scoring rather than the one "primary" line with two lines of "gosh it'd be nice if some of you could put the puck in the net once in a while please?" that we seem to be stuck with.

In the medium term, this is all just pie-in-the-sky. Heatley isn't going anywhere... yet. But I don't doubt that if Spezza leaves, Heatley will be next on the list to be run out of town when his production dries up.